摘要
目的探讨天冬氨酸转氨酶-血小板计数比值指数(aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio index,APRI)与肝细胞癌(hepatocellular carcinoma,HCC)射频消融(radiofrequency ablation,RFA)治疗后肿瘤复发的关系。方法纳入2017年1月至2020年12月江苏大学附属武进医院初诊为HCC并接受RFA治疗的患者204例。采用受试者工作特征(receiver operation characteristics,ROC)曲线确定APRI的最佳截断值。绘制Kaplan-Meier曲线计算高、低APRI组患者的无复发生存期(recurrence-free survival,RFS)。Cox回归分析RFA后HCC复发的独立预测因素,并选择显著变量构建列线图模型。通过一致性指数(concordance index,C-index)和校正曲线评价列线图模型对HCC复发的预测能力。结果RFA治疗后HCC复发率为57.4%(117/204)。APRI预测HCC复发的最佳截断值为0.501,曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.678(95%CI:0.603~0.752)。高APRI组(≥0.501)121例,低APRI组(<0.501)83例,高APRI与患者低RFS显著相关(χ^(2)=12.929,P<0.01)。Cox回归分析证实,肿瘤数目(HR=1.541,95%CI:1.039~2.286,P=0.031)、肿瘤最大直径(HR=1.461,95%CI:1.011~2.112,P=0.044)、血清AFP(HR=2.286,95%CI:1.576~3.318,P<0.01)和APRI(HR=1.873,95%CI:1.257~2.790,P=0.002)是HCC复发的独立风险因素。基于以上4个因素构建预测RFA治疗后HCC复发的列线图模型,C-index为0.769(95%CI:0.676~0.862),预测1年、2年和3年RFS的AUC分别为0.707、0.719和0.707。校正曲线展示模型预测与实际复发风险之间具有良好一致性。结论基于APRI与肿瘤生物学特征的列线图模型对HCC复发具有良好预测能力。
Objective To investigate the relationship between aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio index(APRI)and hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)recurrence after radiofrequency ablation(RFA),and to construct a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis.Methods The clinical data of a total of 204 patients,whose initial diagnosis was HCC and received RFA at the Wujin Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University of China between January 2017 and December 2020,were retrospectively analyzed.The optimal cut-off value of APRI was determined using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to estimate the recurrence-free survival(RFS)of high-APRI group patients and low-APRI group patients.The independent predictors of HCC recurrence after RFA were identified by using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis,and significant variables were selected to construct a nomogram model.The predictive ability of the nomogram model for HCC recurrence was evaluated by the consistency index(C-index)and calibration curves.Results The incidence of HCC recurrence after RFA was 57.4%(117/204),the optimal cut-off value of APRI for predicting HCC recurrence was 0.501,and the area under curve(AUC)value was 0.678(95%CI=0.603-0.752).High-APRI group(≥0.501)had 121 patients and low-APRI group(<0.501)had 83 patients.High APRI index was significantly correlated with low RFS(χ^(2)=12.929,P<0.01).The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the number of tumors(HR=1.541,95%CI=1.039-2.286,P=0.031),maximum tumor diameter(HR=1.461,95%CI=1.011-2.112,P=0.044),serum AFP level(HR=2.286,95%CI=1.576-3.318,P<0.01)and APRI index(HR=1.873,95%CI=1.257-2.790,P=0.002)were the independent risk factors for HCC recurrence.Based on the above four variables,a nomogram model for predicting HCC recurrence after RFA was constructed,the C-index was 0.769(95%CI=0.676-0.862),and the AUC values for 1-,2-,and 3-year RFS prediction were 0.707,0.719,and 0.707,respectively.The calibration curves showed that a good consistency existed between the predicted probability and actual probability.Conclusion The nomogram model based on APRI and tumor biological characteristics has an excellent predictive ability for HCC recurrence after RFA.
作者
季亚香
奚静
刘春艳
吴萍
章晓兰
宋蒨
JI Yaxiang;XI Jing;LIU Chunyan;WU Ping;ZHANG Xiaolan;SONG Qian(Department of Ultrasound,Wujin Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University(Wujin Clinical College of Xuzhou Medical University),Changzhou,Jiangsu Province 213000,China)
出处
《介入放射学杂志》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期38-43,共6页
Journal of Interventional Radiology
基金
江苏省卫生计生委2018年度医学科研课题(H201870)。
关键词
肝细胞癌
射频消融
天冬氨酸转氨酶-血小板计数比值指数
复发
列线图
hepatocellular carcinoma
radiofrequency ablation
aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio index
recurrence
nomogram
