摘要
在人口规模巨大的背景下,促进人口长期均衡发展、深入实施区域协调发展是我国高质量发展的必由之路。采用2006—2020年16个城市的面板数据,使用耦合协调度模型和修正引力模型分别测度成渝城市群16个城市在2006—2020年间的空间网络联系度与人口长期均衡发展水平,运用空间杜宾模型实证分析城市群空间网络联系对人口长期均衡发展的影响及其时空异质性和网络外部效应,发现:(1)城市群空间网络联系可促进本地人口长期均衡发展,但将在周边形成“集聚阴影”,产生不利于周边城市人口长期均衡发展的网络负外部效应。(2)成渝城市群空间网络联系对成都市、重庆市双核心城市以及绵阳市、宜宾市和泸州市三个副中心城市的人口长期均衡发展水平产生促进作用。随着行政级别的提升,城市网络联系逐渐由不利于周边城市人口长期均衡发展的负外部效应转变为促进周边城市人口长期均衡发展的正外部效应。(3)城市空间网络联系所产生的外部效应呈现先负后正,最后趋于收敛的倒S型,且在0-100公里的范围内形成“集聚阴影”,150-200公里范围内为城市网络联系发挥正外部效应的最优半径。(4)科技创新和创业活跃度的提升是城市空间网络联系促进人口长期均衡发展的关键渠道。
In the context of a large population size,an essential path for high-quality development in China is promoting the long-term balanced development of the population and implementing regional coordinated development strategies in urban agglomerations.As the “fourth pole ” of China ' s economic growth,the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,despite having a multi-center structure like the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,and Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomerations,has a relatively lower spatial compactness,and its core cities have a smaller radiation range compared to those in more developed stages of urban agglomerations.Therefore,in the context of high-quality development,it is necessary to deeply analyze the characteristics of the spatial network structure among cities within the ChengduChongqing urban agglomeration and the impact mechanism of the urban agglomeration's spatial network structure on the longterm balanced and coordinated development of the population.This paper uses panel data from 16 cities in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2020,employing the coupling coordination degree model and the modified gravity model to measure the degree of spatial network connections and the level of long-term balanced development of the population in these cities during 2006-2020.It applies the spatial Durbin model to empirically analyze the impact of urban agglomeration spatial network connections on the long-term balanced development of the population and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity and network external effects.The findings reveal that:( 1) Urban agglomeration spatial network connections can promote the long-term balanced development of the local population but will form an “agglomeration shadow ” around,generating network negative external effects that are not conducive to the long-term balanced development of the surrounding cities' population.( 2) The spatial network connections of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration positively affect the long-term balanced development of the population in the dual-core cities of Chengdu and Chongqing,as well as in the three sub-center cities of Mianyang,Yibin,and Luzhou.With the elevation of administrative levels,the city network connections gradually shift from negative external effects,detrimental to the long-term balanced development of the population in the surrounding cities,to positive external effects that promote it.( 3) By incorporating different distance threshold weight matrices into the spatial Durbin model for regression,this article explores the distance heterogeneity of urban spatial network external effects,which shows a negative-to-positive,and eventually converging inverse S-shape,forming an “agglomeration shadow”within the 0-100km range,with the 150-200km range being the optimal radius for urban network connections to exert positive external effects.( 4) The mediation effect model shows that the enhancement of technological innovation and entrepreneurship activity is a key channel through which urban spatial network connections promote the long-term balanced development of the population.Based on the conclusions drawn from theoretical and empirical analyses,this paper suggests that we should:( 1) implement the development strategy of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration to construct a“one axis,two belts,dual cores,and three zones”spatial pattern;( 2) coordinate the planning of the urban agglomeration,and reasonably arrange the national territorial space.( 3) develop and enhance a synergy mechanism for technological innovation to foster the emergence of a cohesive regional innovation ecosystem.( 4) refine the population development policy system to inject endogenous momentum into the long-term balanced development of the regional population.
出处
《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
北大核心
2024年第2期63-79,210,211,共19页
Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition
关键词
成渝城市群
空间网络联系
人口长期均衡发展
高质量发展
Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration
Spatial network connections
Long-term balanced population development
High-quality development
