摘要
基于地图可视化、空间自相关、标准差椭圆和空间马尔科夫链探究中国2006~2020年城市居民生活碳排放的时空特征,并采用时空地理加权模型(GTWR)实证考察城市居民生活碳排放影响因素的时空异质性.结果显示:中国城市居民生活碳排放逐年增长,年均增长率为10.12%,但增速逐渐放缓;呈现东高西低的空间差异特征,且在样本后期呈现逐渐收敛态势.城市居民生活碳排放水平的空间分布呈现显著的空间聚集特征;标准差椭圆呈现向心集聚的趋势,且分布重心逐渐向西南移动,累计迁移了68.97km;居民生活碳排放的动态演进受到邻地城市碳排放水平的影响.各影响因素存在明显的时空异质性.时间趋势上,人口密度、经济发展、对外开放和产业结构在大部分城市促进碳排放,但影响力逐年减弱;技术投入和环境规制则降低碳排放,且影响力逐年增强;空间分布上,人口密度、经济发展和对外开放在南部的影响力更强,而技术投入、产业结构和环境规制的影响力在东部更强.
This paper studied the spatial and temporal features of carbon emission in urban households in China between 2006 and 2020,using these methods including map visualization,spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse and spatial Markov chain,and tested the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of driving forces using spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression(GTWR).Carbon emission in urban households increased over years with a growth rate of 10.12%on average,however,the growth was gradually stopping,where it was higher in the east and lower in the west,and it converged when time approached the end of the sample period.The spatial distribution of carbon emission in urban households significantly showed a geographic concentration.The standard deviation ellipse tended to show a center agglomeration,and the core of the distribution shifted to the southwest for about 68.97km.The dynamics of the carbon emission in urban households was affected by the carbon emission of neighboring cities.The driving forces showed significant differences across geographic spaces and over time.Temporally,the impact of the driving forces,including population density,economic growth,opening up to the world,and sectoral structure,on carbon emission was positive but weakening over time,and the impact of technology and environmental regulations were negative and growing stronger over time.Spatially,the impact of population density,economic growth,and opening up to the world,were much stronger in the south,and the impact of technology,sectoral structure,and environmental regulation were much stronger in the east.
作者
许嘉俊
杨晓军
李睿
XU Jia-jun;YANG Xiao-jun;LI Rui(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期1732-1742,共11页
China Environmental Science
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(23BGL222)。
关键词
城市
居民生活碳排放
影响因素
时空异质性
city
carbon emission in urban households
driving forces
spatial and temporal heterogeneity
