摘要
“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标纲要提出,到2035年人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。这为中国跨越中等收入陷阱提供了明确的战略部署和时间规划。在详细辨析中等收入陷阱概念的基础上,通过典型事实总结、收敛性分析以及分位数向量自回归模型等多种手段的研究表明:第一,随着中国经济发展水平不断提高,传统增长引擎已无法再为经济增长提供持续动力,技术进步和制度质量在驱动经济增长方面的作用日渐突出。第二,作为中高收入国家,中国与美国、日本等发达国家共处同一收敛俱乐部,这表明中国并未陷入中等收入陷阱,只是处于中等收入阶段。第三,近期由技术资本错位引起的效率下降在一定程度上减缓了经济增速,不过这种作用的影响较为有限,仍处于合理范围;相反,制度水平持续提升的效能始终稳健,制度质量在推动长期增长方面具有积极作用。由此可见,纠正技术资本错位,持续发挥制度优势是决胜后发赶超冲刺阶段的关键保障和必由之路。
The“14th Five-Year Plan”and the“Outline of 2035 goals”clearly state that per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035,which provides an important strategic guidance and time plan for China to cross the middle-income trap.Based on making a deep explanation of the concept of the middle-income trap,this paper uses the typical facts summary,the analysis of convergence as well as a quantile vector autoregressive model to draw the following conclusions:first,with the development of China's economy,the traditional growth engines can no longer provide sustained impetus for economic growth,while technological progress and institutional quality are playing an increasingly prominent role in driving economic growth;second,as a middle-to-high income country,China coexists with the developed countries such as the United States and Japan in a same convergence club,which shows that China has not fallen into the middle income trap,it just stays at the middle income stage;third,the recent decline in efficiency caused by the“technology-capital mismatch”has slowed down economic growth to some extent,but the impact of this effect is relatively limited and still within a reasonable range.On the contrary,the effectiveness of the institutional level improvement has remained stable,and the institutional quality has played a positive role in promoting long-term growth.It can be seen that correcting the“technology-capital dislocation”as well as continuously giving play to the institutional advantages are the key guarantee and the only way for China to catch up with the developed countries.
作者
刘海英
田方钰
刘达禹
LIU Hai-ying;TIAN Fang-yu;LIU Da-yu(Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第2期11-28,共18页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘十四五’时期环境约束推动产业平稳、绿色低碳发展的机制与路径研究”(21ZDA006)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“中国经济周期测度的学理思辨与计量评价”(2022-JCXK-36)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“跨周期和逆周期结合下的金融安全维护研究”(22JJD790066)。
关键词
中等收入陷阱
经济增长动力转换
经济增长俱乐部收敛
分位数向量自回归模型
middle-income trap
transition of economic growth driver
club convergence of economic growth
quantile vector autoregressive model
