摘要
【目的】水曲柳、黄菠萝和紫椴为小兴安岭地区亚顶极群落主要建群树种,分析水曲柳、黄菠萝和紫椴在全球气候变化的背景下的潜在分布区,揭示气候变化对植物分布格局影响,进而为森林质量精准提升和国家储备林建设提供依据。【方法】基于19个气候因子、土壤以及海拔数据,运用MaxEnt模型预测了小兴安岭地区3个珍稀易危树种当前、未来(2021—2040年、2041—2060年、2061—2080年和2081—2100年)4种气候变化情景(ssp126、ssp245、ssp370和ssp585)下潜在分布情况。【结果】1)MaxEnt模型拟合效果良好,AUC值均大于0.7;2)水曲柳重要环境因子依次为年降水量、最热季度的平均温度、最湿月份降水;黄菠萝重要环境因子依次为年降水量、最冷季度的平均温度、最冷季降水;紫椴重要环境因子依次为年平均温度、年降水量、最冷季度的平均温度;3)未来气候变化条件下,水曲柳适生区面积波动较大;黄菠萝在ssp370气候情景下,适生区面积缩减程度最大,其他情况适生区面积趋于平稳;紫椴适生区面积为21 769.87~25 579.46 km^(2),变化范围小,适生区面积有减小趋势。4种气候变化下3个树种核心区中心海拔升高31~222 m。【结论】为使小兴安岭地区森林质量提升,以适地适树为原则,可在伊春市大力种植黄菠萝,在黑河市南部和伊春市北部大力种植紫椴。气候变化对水曲柳影响较大,适生区存在面积小,并且适生区等级降低面积大,建议加大对水曲柳保护力度。
【Objective】Fraxinus mandshurica,Phellodendron amurense and Tilia amurensis are the main sub top-level community building tree species in the Xiaoxing’an mountains region.The purpose of this research is to analyze the potential distribution areas of F.mandshurica,P.amurense and T.amurensis in the context of global climate change,reveal the impact of climate change on plant distribution patterns,and provide a basis for precise improvement of forest quality.【Method】Based on 19 climate factors,soil,and altitude data,the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of three protected tree species in the Xiaoxing’an mountains region under four climate change scenarios(ssp126,ssp245,ssp370,and ssp585):currently and in the future(2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080,and 2081-2100).【Result】1)The MaxEnt model had a good fitting effect,with AUC values greater than 0.7;2)The important environmental factors of F.mandshurica in sequence were the annual precipitation,the mean temperature of warmest quarter,and the precipitation of wettest month.The important environmental factors of P.amurense were the annual precipitation,the average temperature of coldest season,and the precipitation of coldest season.The important environmental factors of T.amurensis were the annual mean temperature,the mean temperature of coldest season and the annual precipitation;3)Under the conditions of future climate change,the area of suitable habitat for F.mandshurica fluctuated significantly;Under the ssp370 climate scenario,the area of suitable growing areas for yellow pineapple decreased the most,while in other cases,the area of suitable growing areas tended to stabilize;The suitable growth area of T.amurensis ranged from 21769.87 to 25579.46 km^(2),with a small range of variation and a decreasing trend.The central elevation of the core area of the three tree species increased by 85-183 m under four climate changes.【Conclusion】In order to improve the forest quality in the Xiaoxing’anling area,based on the principle of suitable land and trees,P.amurense can be vigorously planted in Yichun city,and purple linden can be vigorously planted in the southern part of Heihe city and the northern part of Yichun city.Climate change has a significant impact on F.mandshurica,with a small area of suitable areas and a large area of reduced levels of suitable areas.It is recommended to increase the protection of F.mandshurica.
作者
王博一
董灵波
刘兆刚
WANG Boyi;DONG Lingbo;LIU Zhaogang(College of Forestry,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,Heilongjiang,China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management of Ministry of Education,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,Heilongjiang,China)
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期29-40,共12页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD2200502)。
关键词
气候变化
MaxEnt模型
潜在分布区
水曲柳
黄菠萝
紫椴
climate change
MaxEnt model
potential distribution area
Fraxinus mandshurica
Phellodendron amurense
Tilia amurensis
