摘要
非洲猪瘟无疫苗、根除难,疫情点状暴发的风险仍然存在,如何在疫情冲击后快速恢复生产、保持生猪产能稳定是中国生猪产业亟待解决的难题。本文基于对21个省份受灾养殖户的调研数据开展了疫后养殖户生产恢复行为的研究。结果表明,生猪养殖户的综合恢复力对其恢复意愿与恢复速度具有显著正向影响,但目前养殖户的内生恢复力较弱,生产恢复主要依靠外部支持拉动;在本次非洲猪瘟疫情后生产恢复的过程中,缓冲能力和自组织能力在养殖户做出“是否恢复生产”决策的阶段显著提高了养殖户的恢复意愿,而在实际恢复生产的阶段,则仅有外部支持因素对恢复速度的提高发挥了显著正向作用。缓冲能力中的人力资本与物质资本、学习能力中的认知能力与获取信息能力、自组织能力中的社会网络是养殖户内生恢复力的短板因素;外部支持因素的短板主要在于养殖保险支持不足。基于以上研究结论,从培养养殖户内生恢复力和优化外部支持结构两方面提出针对性政策建议,为政府构建疫后生猪生产恢复机制提供参考。
African swine fever is difficult to eradicate due to the lack of vaccines.The possi-bility of swine fever outbreaks in Africa persists.After the effect of the pandemic,it is imperative to determine how to immediately restart production in China's swine market and preserve the sta-bility of pig production capacity.Based on the survey data from impacted farmers in 21 provinces(cities,and autonomous areas),this paper analyzes the production recovery behaviors of post-epi-demic farmers.The findings demonstrates that pig farmers'overall resilience had a favorable effect on recovery willingness and speed.However,the endogenous resilience of farmers is weak,and production recovery mainly depends on external support.When deciding"whether to restart production"after African swine fever,the buffering and self-organizing ability of pig farmers greatly increases their recovery willingness.In contrast,only external support measures substantially enhanced recovery speed at the period of real production recovery.The shortcomings of endogenous resilience of pig breeding households include human capital and material capital in buffering capacity,cognitive ability and information acquisition ability in learning ability,and social network in self-organizing ability.The weakness of external support factors mainly lies in the insufficient support of aquaculture insurance.This paper puts forward policy suggestions from two aspects of cultivating the endogenous resilience of pig breeding households and optimizing the external support structure,providing a guide for the government to build a production recovery mechanism.
作者
刘芳
袁艳云
张莎莎
何忠伟
LIU Fang;YUAN Yanyun;ZHANG Shasha;HE Zhongwei
出处
《农业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第3期35-51,共17页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
2020年国家社科基金一般项目(编号:20BGL170)。
关键词
非洲猪瘟
养殖户
恢复力
恢复意愿
恢复速度
African swine fever
Pig famers
Resilience
Recovery willingness
Recovery speed
