摘要
经济和社会发展离不开能源的使用,巨大的能源消耗将会产生大量碳排放。论文建立了经济能源碳排放(EECE)模型,对上海市碳排放进行回顾性分解(2000—2017年)和前瞻性预测(2025年和2030年)。具体而言,通过结构分解分析、双比例平衡法以及时间序列法,从系统层面建立了历史分析与未来分析之间的动态联系。研究发现,上海市化石能源产生碳排放量最多的能源类型为煤炭行业,其次为石油行业。天然气行业是产生碳排放量最少的化石能源。电力和热力的生产和供应业、服务业与金属冶炼和轧制加工业是上海市历年产生碳排放最多的部门。最终需求水平是上海市能源消耗产生碳排放的主要驱动因素。碳排放产生强度是上海市降低能源消耗产生碳排放的主要驱动力。在碳达峰条件下,2025年与2030年碳排放数量大幅降低。
Economic and social development cannot be achieved without the use of energy,but huge energy consumption will generate a large amount of carbon emissions.The article establishes an Economic Energy Carbon Emission(EECE)model to retrospectively decompose(2000 to 2017)and prospectively forecast(2025 and 2030)the carbon emissions in Shanghai.Specifically,dynamic links between historical and future analyses were established at the system level through structural decomposition analysis,double scale matrix balance methods,and time series methods.The study found that the energy type generating the most carbon emissions from fossil energy in Shanghai is the coal industry,followed by the oil industry.Production and supply of electricity and heat,services and metal smelting and rolling processing industry are the sectors that generate the most carbon emissions in Shanghai over the years.The level of final demand is the main driver of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shanghai.The intensity of carbon emissions generation is the main driver for reducing carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shanghai.The number of carbon emissions will be significantly lower in 2025 and 2030 under carbon peaking conditions.
作者
陈晨
李薇
翟梦瑜
王振宇
朱亮亮
CHEN Chen;LI Wei;ZHAI Mengyu;WANG Zhenyu;ZHU Liangliang(School of Nuclear Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;College of Environmental Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Faculty of Materials and Manufacturing,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;State Grid Electric Power Research Institute/NARI Group Corporation,Nanjing Jiangsu 210000,China;State Grid Electric Power Research Institute Wuhan Efficiency Evaluation Company Limited,Wuhan Hubei 430074,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2024年第3期22-29,共8页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家重点研发计划“产品回收拆解再利用全流程管控平台研发与示范”(2022YFB3305804)
中国博士后科学基金面上项目“碳中和与贸易壁垒交互作用对黄河经济带产业协同用水的影响机制研究”(2022M720323)。
关键词
碳排放
能源消耗
经济
结构分解
最终需求水平
carbon emissions
energy consumption
economy
structural decomposition
final demand level
