摘要
为了量化贸易伴随的虚拟水流动,评价其对区域水资源系统的影响,运用多区域投入产出模型揭示2012年、2015年、2017年黄河流域内、外部虚拟水贸易格局与结构,采用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)对黄河流域各省区相对于中国其他省区的净输出虚拟水进行影响效应分析,用QAP回归模型分析黄河流域各省区之间虚拟水贸易的影响因素。研究结果表明:1)黄河流域整体呈虚拟水净输入状态,但向北京、天津、河北等12个省区净输出虚拟水。2)黄河流域虚拟水贸易输出行业主要是农业及电力、燃气和水的生产和供应业。3)结构效应和强度效应是黄河流域虚拟水净输出的重要驱动因素。4)经济发展水平、地理空间距离及用水强度是影响黄河流域内部虚拟水贸易的主要因素。
In order to quantify trade-associated virtual water flows and evaluate their impact on regional water systems,this paper used the multi-region input-output model to reveal the pattern and structure of the virtual water trade inside and outsided of the Yellow River Basin in 2012,2015 and 2017 and used LMDI method to analyze the impact of the virtual water net output of the watershed relative to others,and used the QAP model to analyze the impact factors of the virtual water trade among provinces within the watershed.The results show that a)the Yellow River Basin as a whole presents a virtual water net input state,but the Yellow River Basin net exports virtual water to Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and other 12 regions.b)The virtual water trade export industry is mainly the production and supply of agriculture,electricity,gas and water.c)Structure effect and in-tensity effect are important driving factors of virtual water net output in the watershed.d)QAP regression outcomes prove that economic development level,geographic distance and water use intensity differences are the main factors affecting the virtual water trade.
作者
邓光耀
毛颖
DENG Guangyao;MAO Ying(School of Statistics and Data Science,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第4期68-72,85,共6页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72363021)
甘肃省陇原青年英才项目
兰州财经大学丝绸之路经济研究院科研项目(JYYZ202102)。
