摘要
人口老龄化问题已对各个领域产生深远的影响。随着老龄化程度的日趋深化,中国数量型人口红利效应式微,人口结构失衡给经济社会可持续发展带来了一系列冲击。本文利用我国省市区的面板数据,构建Cobb-Douglas生产函数扩展模型,从静态、动态两个角度对人口老龄化的经济效应进行实证研究。结果发现,短期内,老年人口的快速增长导致劳动力人口的预防动机发生变化,并形成第二次人口红利,从而刺激经济增长。长期看,老年抚养比迅速攀升,经济社会受到的负面冲击会持续扩大,且劳动力人口占比较老年抚养比对经济发展具有更大的负向作用。国家应积极从经济发展方式、生育政策、老年产业、养老保障和服务体系等方面采取有效应对措施。
As an important symbol of the imbalance of the global population structure,the scope and extent of ageing has been compared with the important social changes such as industrialization and urbanization.As a member of emerging markets,with the deepening of population ageing,China's quantitative demographic dividend effect has declined.The severe distortion of the population structure has brought a series of impacts to the sustainable development of social economy.This paper utilizes panel data from provinces and municipalities in China to construct an expanded Cobb-Douglas production function model and empirically study the economic effects of population aging from both static and dynamic perspectives.The results indicate that in the short term,the rapid growth of the elderly population changes the incentive for the labor force and forms a second demographic dividend,thereby stimulating economic growth.In the long term,as the elderly dependency ratio rapidly rises,the negative impacts on economic and social aspects will continue to expand,and the proportion of the labor force has a greater negative effect on economic development compared to the elderly dependency ratio.The country should actively adopt effective measures in terms of economic development mode,fertility policies,elderly industries,pension security,and service systems to address the challenges posed by population aging.
作者
夏菱阳
宣琳琳
董璐
XIA Lingyang;XUAN Linlin;DONG Lu(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Changsha University of Science and Technology;School of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University;Hunan Provincial Branch,Bank of Communications)
出处
《金融经济》
2024年第2期81-91,共11页
Finance Economy
基金
长沙市自然科学基金面上项目“碳达峰目标下经济社会发展全面绿色转型的统计监测评价研究”(kq2208048)。
