摘要
人口变动分为自然变动、结构变动和迁移变动,它对劳动收入份额的变化起到了举足轻重的作用,而劳动收入份额的变动关系着国民收入初次分配公平问题,是破解收入分配和实现共同富裕的关键所在。从人口集聚角度出发,分别基于以上三种人口变动情况综合探究其对劳动收入份额的影响。一方面,基于改进的CES生产函数等相关经济模型对其作用机制进行理论数学推导;另一方面,为了进一步验证上述理论模型推导结果,基于中国31个省份2010-2022年面板数据选取相应指标构建基准回归、中介效应和门槛效应回归模型实证检验人口变动对劳动收入份额的影响关系并对不同区域进行异质性检验。创新点如下:首先,考虑到人口集聚效应的因素,将其作为中介变量建立中介效应模型和门槛变量进行门槛效应分析。其次,将人口变动的形式进行具体分类,分别探究不同形式下人口变动对劳动收入份额的影响。最后,本文采用实证模型同相关经济理论模型相结合的方式探究人口变动对劳动收入份额的影响。
Population change can be divided into natural change,structural change and migration change,which plays an important role in the change of labor income share,and the change of labor income share is related to the fairness of the primary distribution of national income,and is the key to crack the income distribution and achieve common prosperity.From the perspective of population agglomeration,based on the above three population changes,we comprehensively explore its impact on labor income share.On the one hand,based on the improved CES production function and other related economic models,the mechanism of its action is derived theoretically and mathematically.On the other hand,in order to further verify the derivation results of the above theoretical model,based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2022,corresponding indicators were selected to construct baseline regression,intermediary effect and threshold effect regression models to empirically test the relationship between population change and labor income share and conduct heterogeneity test for different regions.The innovation points are as follows:Firstly,taking the factors of population agglomeration effect into account,the intermediary effect model and threshold variable are established to analyze the threshold effect;Secondly,it classifies the forms of population change and explores the impact of population change on labor income share in different forms.Finally,this paper uses the empirical model combined with the relevant economic theory model to explore the impact of population change on labor income share.
作者
张学清
王亦飞
张钰婕
吴春燕
刘璐
ZHANG Xue-qing;WANG Yi-fei;ZHANG Yu-jie;WU Chun-yan;LIU Lu(Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005,China)
出处
《山东工商学院学报》
2024年第2期114-124,共11页
Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University
基金
山东省社科规划研究专项“山东省数据要素价值化思路与对策研究”(23CSDJ33)。
关键词
劳动收入份额
人口变动
人口集聚
CES生产函数
人口老龄化
labor income share
population change
population agglomeration
CES production function
aging population
