摘要
目的应用ARIMA模型建立适合高值易波动药品需求预测的最优模型,以此构建预测平台,持续捕捉高值易波动药品的需求走势。方法结合ABC分类法和季节系数分类法从我院药品目录中筛选出高值易波动药品,根据2014一2022年的药品消耗数据,以BIC信息准则最小原则依次确定各品种的最优ARIMA模型,遵循ARIMA原理完成批量预测平台在Excel中的构建。结果筛选出51种高值易波动药品,在2022年的药品消耗金额中占50.82%,ARIMA模型拟合度指标平稳R方和平均绝对百分比误差获得理想数值,残差和参数分别通过白噪声检验和显著性检验,模型通过可持续性判断,批量预测平台搭建成功。结论ARIMA模型可应用于高值易波动药品需求走势的判断,基于ARIMA模型的批量预测平台能够高效、准确、持续服务于此类药品采购计划的执行。
Objective To establish an optimal model for demand prediction of drugs with high value and easy fluctuation by ARIMA model,so as to build a prediction plaform and continuously capture the demand trend of fluctuated high-value drugs.Methods ABC classification and seasonal coefficient classification were used to screen out fluctuated high value drugs from the drug catalogue of our hospital.According to the drug consumption data from 2014 to 2022,the optimal ARIMA model of each variety was determined by the minimum principle of BIC,and the batch prediction platform was constructed in Excel according to the ARIMA principle.Results 51 high-value and volatile drugs were screened out,accounting for 50.82%of the drug consumption in 2022.ARIMA model fit index stationary R-square and average absolute percentage error get ideal values,residual and parameter pass white noise test and significance test respectively.The model was judged by sustainability,and the batch prediction platform was successfully built.Conclusion ARIMA model can be applied to judge the trend of demand for drugs with high value and easy fluctuation.The batch prediction platform based on the ARIMA model can efficiently,accurately and continuously serve the execution of such drug procurement plans.
作者
王臣建
周红萍
WANG Chen-jan;ZHOU Hong-ping(Hangzhou Children's Hospital)
出处
《医院管理论坛》
2024年第2期59-63,88,共6页
Hospital Management Forum
基金
浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目,编号:2022KY1010。
