摘要
山洪泥石流作为一种常见的自然灾害,其突发性和破坏性给人类社会的生产生活带来了巨大的威胁。在全球气候变暖的背景下,山洪泥石流的发生频率和破坏力呈现增加趋势。通过采用有序logistics回归模型,对四川省北川羌族自治县地区山洪泥石流危险性进行了定量化评估,选取流域切割密度、流域相对高差、主沟长度、50年一遇泥石流规模等多个关键因素,构建了logistics回归模型进行危险性评估。根据模型结果发现,主沟长度和50年一遇规模的影响最为显著。本文不仅对山洪泥石流风险进行了较为精确的定量化评估,同时也为防治措施的制定提供了科学依据。
Flash floods and debris flows,as a common type of natural disaster,pose a significant threat to human society due to their sudden onset and destructive power.Under the context of global warming,the frequency and destructive force of flash floods and debris flows are showing an increasing trend.This study uses an ordinal logistics regression model to quantitatively assess the risk of flash floods and debris flows in Beichuan Qiang Autonomous County,Sichuan Province.Several key factors,including the density of basin cut,relative height difference of the basin,main ditch length,and the scale of a once-in-50-years debris flow,were selected to build the logistics regression model for risk assessment.According to the model results,the length of the main ditch and the scale of a once-in-50-years event have the most significant impact.This study not only provides a relatively accurate quantitative assessment of the risk of flash floods and debris flows,but also offers scientific basis for the formulation of preventive measures.
作者
纪洪源
杨奉广
Ji Hongyuan;Yang Fengguang(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu610065,China)
出处
《吉林水利》
2024年第4期1-6,46,共7页
Jilin Water Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51979180)。
