摘要
【目的】水资源的配置是解决水资源冲突的一个重要途径。统筹考虑用水主体的社会经济发展和决策交互等情况,以期合理配置水权。【方法】以浙江省为研究区域,分别基于多准则决策来构建指标体系以及基于博弈论构建主从博弈模型进行水权配置,并联系实际情况对配置结果进行对比分析,探究两种方案的适用性。【结果】结果显示:两种方案总水权相同,博弈论方案用水总收益为65167亿元,较多准则决策方案的59649亿元提升了9%;两种方案在绍兴、金华和台州等城市的水权配置结果以及总收益十分接近,博弈论方案水权分配结果较符合各地区用水需求,多准则决策方案在衢州、湖州和丽水的水权分配远超其需水量。【结论】多准则决策方案在信息较少时可依据各项指标对水权进行粗略度量。构建的水权配置指标体系有其合理性,但定权及评价等还不完善,配置结果与实际需求存在差距。主从博弈模型能够有效调和不同层次的冲突,满足用水个体供水保证率,水权配置结果也更科学合理,可在一定程度上约束水资源的浪费和低效利用情况。研究对比分析了两种方案的水权配置结果,可为管理者进行水权分配科学决策提供一定参考依据。
[Objective]The allocation of water resources serves as a significant approach to addressing conflicts associated with water resources.It is essential to consider the holistic perspective of social and economic development and decision-making interaction among water users while rationalizing the allocation of water rights.[Methods]Zhejiang Province is taken as the research area,where an index system is established based on multi-criteria decision-making.Additionally,a master-slave game model is devised using game theory to configure water rights.The configuration result are then compared and analyzed in conjunction with the present circumstances,aiming to explore the applicability of the two schemes.[Results]The result indicate that:both schemes have the same total water rights.However,the game theory scheme shows a total water income of 6516.7 billion yuan,which is a 9%increase from the 5964.9 billion yuan of the multi-criteria decision-making scheme.The water rights allocation and total income result in cities like Shaoxing,Jinhua,and Taizhou are quite similar for both schemes.The water rights alloca-tion result of the game theory scheme align more closely with the water demand of each region.On the other hand,the water rights allocation of the multi-criteria decision-making scheme significantly exceeds the water demand in Quzhou,Huzhou,and Lishui.[Conclusion]The multi-criteria decision-making scheme provides a rough measurement of water rights based on various indicators,particularly when there is limited information available.The constructed water rights allocation index system is reason-able,albeit imperfect in terms of determining and evaluating water rights,resultsing in a gap between the allocation result and actual needs.On the other hand,the master-slave game model effectively resolves conflicts at different levels,ensuring a water supply guarantee for individual water users.Furthermore,the water rights allocationresult derived from this model are more scien-tifically and reasonably determined,which helps to curb wasteful and inefficient use of water resources to some extent.This com-parison and analysis of water right allocation result between the two schemes presented in this research offer valuable insights for decision-makers in effectively managing water rights allocation.
作者
袁艳斌
郭峰
肖静
YUAN Yanbin;GUO Feng;XIAO Jing(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan430070,Hubei,China;Undergraduate School,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan430070,Hubei,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2024年第2期90-100,共11页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079101)
青年科学基金项目(42001018)。
关键词
水资源配置
多准则决策
主从博弈
水资源
影响因素
water resource allocation
multi-criteria decision-making
master-slave game
water resource
influence factor
