摘要
提升产业链韧性是推动高质量发展、维护国家安全的关键内容。基于亚洲开发银行编制的多区域投入产出表(ADB-MRIO)测算产业链韧性水平指标,并结合国际机器人联合会(IFR)提供的工业机器人数据,深入探究人工智能对产业链韧性的影响效应和作用机制。研究发现:(1)总体而言,人工智能会显著提高产业链的韧性水平,这一结果在处理内生性问题、更换变量、样本范围和估计方法等稳健性检验下,依然显著成立。(2)机制分析表明,技术创新效应和治理体系优化效应是人工智能助力产业链韧性提升的关键内在机制。(3)异质性分析表明,在国家层面,人工智能对发达国家和数字基础设施普及程度更高国家的产业链韧性的提升作用更明显;在行业层面,相比低技术制造业,人工智能对中高技术类制造业的产业链韧性提升作用更为突出。(4)考虑2008年金融危机的影响时发现,金融危机会在一定程度上削弱人工智能对产业链韧性的提升效应。据此提出应培育壮大人工智能行业、推进产业链和创新链融合发展以及加快建设数字化政府。
At present,the Ukraine crisis has triggered the accelerated evolution of the world geopolitical pattern.Trade frictions and the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic have increased the risk of rupture of the global industrial chain.In this context,countries have shifted from pursuing“efficiency”of the industrial chain to emphasizing both“efficiency and security”,and the issue of industrial chain resilience and security has been raised to unprecedented new heights.Improving the resilience of the industrial chain is a key component in promoting high-quality development and maintaining national security.Based on the multi-regional input-output table(ADB-MRIO)compiled by the Asian Development Bank,this paper calculates the resilience of the industry chain,then combines it with industrial robots data provided by the International Federation of Robotics(IFR)to deeply explore the impact and mechanism of artificial intelligence on the resilience of the industry chain.The study shows that:(1)overall,artificial intelligence can significantly improve the resilience of the industry chain.This result is still significantly valid under robustness tests such as dealing with endogenous problems,changing variables,changing sample range,and changing estimation methods.(2)The mechanism test results show that the effects of technological innovation and governance system optimization are the internal mechanisms for AI to enhance the resilience of the industrial chain.(3)The heterogeneity analysis shows that at the national level,artificial intelligence has a more significant impact on enhancing the resilience of industrial chain in developed countries and countries with higher levels of digital infrastructure penetration.At the industry level,compared to low tech manufacturing,artificial intelligence plays a more prominent role in enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain in mid to high tech manufacturing.(4)When considering the impact of the 2008 financial crisis,we also find that the financial crisis has weakened the positive effect of artificial intelligence on the resilience of the industrial chain.This paper contributes to the existing literature in three aspects.First,in terms of research issues,this paper provides a possible path to effectively improve the resilience of the industrial chain from the perspective of artificial intelligence,and further enriches the research on the determinants of industrial chain resilience.At the same time,we also put forward the internal mechanism of artificial intelligence to improve the resilience of the industrial chain,that is,artificial intelligence will affect the resilience of the industrial chain through two possible channels:technological innovation effect and governance system optimization effect.Second,in terms of index construction,based on the analysis of industrial chain resilience in the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Report,this paper uses the input-output method to construct the index of industrial chain resilience at the country-industry level from the perspective of intermediate input diversification,providing empirical evidence for accurately identifying the industrial chain resilience in various industries and countries.Third,in terms of research data,this paper manually links the multi-regional input-output table(ADB-MRIO)and the International Federation of Robotics(IFR)to form the dataset needed for this research.In addition,the sample interval of this study is from 2007 to 2019.Compared with previous studies using the WIOD input-output table up to 2014,it can better reflect the current new pattern of global economic and trade adjustment and has higher timeliness.The research in this paper helps to explore the possible path to ensure the resilience and safety of the industrial chain,and then provides beneficial theoretical support for achieving high-quality development under the new round of scientific and technological revolution.
作者
吕越
张杰
LYU Yue;ZHANG Jie(Academy of China Open Economy Studies,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第2期29-38,共10页
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD098)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173040)
对外经济贸易大学杰出青年学者资助项目(20JQ02)。
关键词
人工智能
产业链韧性
投入产出
工业机器人
技术创新
治理体系优化
artificial intelligence
resilience of the industrial chain
input-output
industrial robot
technological innovation
governance system optimization
