摘要
近年来逆全球化趋势愈演愈烈,贸易政策不确定性有所增加,而中国则坚持高水平的对外开放。本文以近代中国通商开埠为准自然实验,重新检验开放与贸易的关系。晚清政府被迫与西方列强签订条约以开放特定通商口岸,条约联系可以降低贸易政策的不确定性,促进通商口岸对外贸易。利用1927-1931年50个通商口岸与32个国家(地区)之间进出口贸易数据的研究发现,条约口岸进出口贸易额显著高于主动自开口岸,但与约定自开口岸规模相当。在条约口岸(含约定自开口岸)内部,势力范围的作用不显著,口岸与贸易国之间的条约联系,尤其是租界条约联系对通商口岸对外贸易至关重要。机制分析表明,条约联系可以促进口岸府外商直接投资,进而增加进出口贸易。在1929年关税自主改革冲击下,口岸进口贸易额显著下降,但首次条约国利用其“先占者”优势扩大对华出口。
Reverse globalization is increasingly strengthening and raising trade policy uncertainty,while the Chinese government insists on high-level opening.This paper reexamines the causality between opening and trade by using the quasi-experiment of treaty ports in modern China.We argue that the treaty linkage can eliminate the uncertainty and promote the FDI and foreign trade in the treaty ports.By employing the panel data of the foreign trade between 50 ports and 32 countries or regions from 1927 to 1931,this paper finds that the treaty ports see more foreign trade than the ports opened purely by the Chinese government,but see indifferent volume with the ports opened by the Chinese government according to a particular treaty.Within the broad-sense treaty ports,it is not the power sphere but the treaty linkage,particularly the concession linkage that significantly promoted the trade of the treaty ports through FDI.With the shock of the tariff autonomy reform in 1929,the volume of imported goods in the ports decreased,but the first treaty countries could enlarge their exports to the ports for their first entry advantages.
作者
刘愿
陈子聪
Liu Yuan;Chen Zicong(School of Economics and Management, South China Normal University)
出处
《经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第2期217-236,共20页
Economic Science
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“通商开埠对近现代中国经济发展的影响研究:理论与实证”(项目编号:71973047)的阶段性成果。
