摘要
增强气候韧性是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的应有之义。基于IPCC“灾害—暴露度—脆弱性”的气候风险框架和“工程韧性—生态韧性—演化韧性”的韧性理论框架,系统评估黄河流域气候韧性水平。结果表明:(1)黄河流域气候风险和城市韧性水平具有明显的地域差异性,均呈现上游>中游>下游的空间特征;(2)黄河流域气候风险水平趋于上升,下游地区上升最为显著,是极端降雨和极端高温事件的高发区;(3)黄河流域城市类型以脆弱型和高风险城市为主,且不同城市类型在时间和空间维度发生明显跃迁和转变。为科学有效应对气候变化风险和挑战,应差异化实施气候应对策略,协同推进工程韧性、生态韧性、经济韧性和社会韧性,提升流域气候韧性和可持续发展能力。
Enhancing climate resilience is an implicit requirement for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the IPCC“disaster-exposure-vulnerability”climate risk framework and the resilience theoretical framework“engineering resilience-ecological resilience-evolutionary resilience”,the climate resilience level of the Yellow River Basin will be systematically assessed.The results reveal that(1)the climate risk and urban resilience level of the Yellow River Basin have obvious geographical variability,both presenting the spatial characteristics of upstream>middlestream>downstream;(2)the climate risk level of the Yellow River Basin tends to rise,and the downstream area rises the most significantly,which is a hotspot for extreme rainfall and extreme high temperatures;(3)the urban types within the Yellow River watershed are characterized by vulnerable and high-risk cities,with significant shifts and transitions occurring over time and space.In order to effectively respond to climate change risks,climate response strategies should be differentiated,and engineering resilience,ecological resilience,economic resilience and social resilience should be synergistically promoted,so as to enhance the basin’s climate resilience and sustainable development capacity.
作者
武占云
孙劭
张双悦
王伟
WU Zhanyun;SUN Shao;ZHANG Shuangyue;WANG Wei(Research Institute for Eco-Civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100053,China;School of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China;School of Government,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《国土资源科技管理》
2024年第2期62-74,共13页
Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources
基金
国家社科基金重大研究专项(23VHQ019)
国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AZD043)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA086)
中国社会科学院创新工程项目(2021STSB02)。
关键词
黄河流域
气候变化
气候风险
城市韧性
Yellow River Basin
climate change
climate risk
urban resilience
