摘要
绿色技术创新是解决环境污染和实现碳减排目标的重要手段。基于2011—2021年中国内地271个地级及以上城市面板数据,使用参数与非参数方法检验绿色技术创新对碳排放的非线性影响,分析能源消费结构及产业结构的中介作用,同时探讨环境规制、科创支持、市场化程度和公众关注的调节作用。研究发现:①基准回归结果表明,绿色技术创新与碳排放呈显著倒“U”型关系;②异质性检验结果表明,倒“U”型关系仅在非资源型城市、低碳试点城市和高质量绿色技术创新体现明显;③中介效应检验结果表明,绿色技术创新既能通过优化能源消费结构降低碳排放,又会通过阻碍产业结构升级增加碳排放;④调节效应分析结果表明,公众关注、科创支持和市场化程度对绿色技术创新与碳排放倒“U”型关系起正向调节作用,使倒“U”型曲线更陡峭,而环境规制对绿色技术创新与碳排放倒“U”型关系起负向调节作用,使倒“U”型曲线更平缓。据此,提出提升绿色技术创新能力、推动清洁能源发展、加强政策配套支持、完善市场机制、构建政府公众共治体系等建议。
Strengthening green technology innovation and promoting major scientific and technological applications are of great significance for achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals of China.However,existing studies indicate that technological innovation may not consistently mitigate environmental pollution,and there is ongoing debate about the global efficacy of green technology innovation in reducing carbon emissions.The implementation of green technology may paradoxically heighten energy consumption,resulting in a carbon rebound effect that exceeds emission reductions achieved through technological progress.This could lead to a significant increase in carbon emissions,posing a substantial challenge.Theoretically,the moderating roles of the government,degree of marketization,and public attention are also pivotal in mitigating the impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions.Hence,this paper systematically organizes the comprehensive impacts and mechanisms of green technology innovation on carbon emissions.Green technology innovation has a multifaceted impact on carbon emissions.On one hand,it enhances energy efficiency through technological upgrades,reducing consumption and lowering production costs for businesses with unchanged energy demand.According to Cost theory,this triggers increased product demand,prompting companies to raise input factors that lead to growth in energy demand,consumption,and carbon emissions—an effect known as the output effect.Additionally,improved energy efficiency may lower fossil energy prices,potentially increasing demand and weakening the expected impact of green technology.On the other hand,green technology innovation can reduce carbon emissions at different production stages.Clean energy sources like solar and wind power can replace fossil energy,while innovation in production processes improves energy utilization efficiency and production efficiency,indirectly reducing carbon emissions without changing total output.Thus,it contributes to effective carbon emission reduction by optimizing pollution control technologies,developing carbon sink technologies and carbon storage technologies.The government,market,and the public are crucial in this process.Green technology innovation involves substantial investment and slow returns,with a typical policy-driven role and greater external dependence compared to other technological innovations.Government policies can rectify market failures,restrain polluting enterprises,and guide technological and industrial development through incentives.As policies gradually recede,the market assumes a more pivotal role.In the competitive landscape,a"survival-of-the-fittest"mechanism compels enterprises to transform.Joint government and public oversight influence decisions,impacting adjustments in technology research and development direction and intensity.Using the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2021,this paper introduces novel approaches by employing both parametric and non-parametric models to assess the non-linear relationship between green technology innovation and carbon emissions.Moreover,it utilizes a mediating effect model to analyze the factors contributing to the formation of this non-linear relationship.Additionally,this study expands its scope of investigation to include governmental,market,and public factors.Specifically,it examines the role of the government,market,and the public in relation to their levels of public concern,the implementation of environmental regulations,support for science and technology innovation,and the degree of marketization.The benchmark regression analysis discloses a notable"inverted U"-relationship between green technology innovation and carbon emissions.This distinctive relationship is evident exclusively in non-resource cities,low-carbon pilot cities,and high-quality green technology innovation.The mediating effect analysis underscores that green technology innovation can alleviate carbon emissions by optimizing energy consumption structures.Conversely,it may contribute to increased carbon emissions by impeding industrial structure upgrading.Moreover,moderating effects suggest that increased public concern and support for science and innovation,and a greater degree of marketization positively influence the"inverted U"-relationship between green technological innovation and carbon emissions,rendering the curve steeper.In contrast,environmental regulation exhibits a negative moderating effect on this relationship,flattening the"inverted U"-curve.The research provides empirical demonstrations to deepen the understanding of the connection between green technological innovation and carbon emissions.It contributes to the enhancement of both theoretical and empirical research in the realms of green technology innovation and carbon emission reduction,and offers insights for theoretical and empirical research on industrial green transformation and green innovation R&D,as well as supporting the formulation and implementation of green policies,such as government environmental supervision and innovation subsidies.
作者
徐俊武
陈钊雄
Xu Junwu;Chen Zhaoxiong(School of Business,Hubei University;Research Center of Open Economy,Wuhan 430062,China)
出处
《科技进步与对策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第8期22-32,共11页
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AJL004)。
关键词
绿色技术创新
碳排放
非线性效应
调节效应
中介效应
Green Technology Innovation
Carbon Emission
Nonlinear Effect
Moderating Effect
Mediating Effect
