摘要
在世界经济迅速发展的浪潮下,浙江省交通运输业发展迅猛,但也不可避免地产生碳排放问题。本文根据2002—2021年的数据对碳排放量进行估算,并建立Tapio模型以及LMDI分解模型对浙江省交通运输业的碳排放脱钩状态及其碳排放驱动因素进行分析。结果表明:浙江省交通运输业脱钩状态处于反复过程中,仅在2014—2015年出现过强脱钩状态,2003年、2006—2008年及2021年均为弱脱钩状态;经济规模对碳排放的影响较大,能源强度及人口规模对于碳排放属于正向影响。据此,本文建议浙江省交通运输业可通过加强新能源转型、完善社会参与机制以及发挥人口规模的正向影响作用来进行优化。
Amidst the rapid development of the world economy,the transportation industry in Zhejiang Province has experienced rapid growth.However,it inevitably brings about carbon emissions issues.Based on available data from 2002 to 2021,this paper is to estimate carbon emissions and establish Tapio model and LMDI decomposition model to analyze the decoupling status and driving factors of carbon emissions of the transportation industry in Zhejiang Province.The results show that the decoupling status of the transportation industry in Zhejiang Province demonstrates a cyclic pattern,with strong decoupling only occurring from 2014 to 2015,and weak decoupling in 2003,2006 to 2008,and 2021;Economic scale has a signifi cant impact on carbon emissions,while energy intensity and population size have a positive impact on carbon emissions.Based on this,the paper suggests that the transportation industry in Zhejiang Province can optimize by strengthening the transition to new energy,improving social participation mechanisms,and leveraging the positive impact of population scale.
作者
邵可盈
刘利民
Shao Keying;Liu Limin(Zhejiang Wanli University,Ningbo 315000,Zhejiang)
出处
《中国商论》
2024年第8期136-140,共5页
China Journal of Commerce
基金
浙江省哲学社会科学规划后期资助项目“基于全球价值链分工的制造业碳转移排放研究”(23HQZZ33YB)。
关键词
交通运输业
碳排放
碳脱钩
Tapio模型
LMDI分解模型
transportation industry
carbon emissions
carbon decoupling
Tapio model
LMDI decomposition model
