摘要
参考相关研究文献,以港航服务业相关理论为依据,结合中国当前港航服务产业发展特点,从基础条件、发展规模、发展效益、发展潜力4个方面构建港航服务业发展水平评价指标体系,运用模糊评价法进行测度,并运用核密度估计模型、GMM模型等对中国沿海地区(不包括港澳台)2006-2017年港航服务业发展水平时空分异及影响因素加以分析,结果显示:(1)我国沿海地区港航服务业发展水平综合得分由2006年的0.099到2017年的0.241,呈现逐年稳步上升趋势,年均增长率为8.54%。(2)2006-2012年,部分发展水平得分处在中间值区的地区发展较快,进一步向更高水平区集聚;2012-2017年,我国沿海地区港航服务业发展两极格局凸显;研究期内原港航服务业发展水平较高地区提升速度快于原港航服务业发展水平较低地区。(3)我国沿海地区港航服务业产业发展规模的整体提升速度显著高于其发展效益、发展潜力、发展基础条件的整体提升速度,港航服务业发展规模扩张迅速,产业发展质量有待进一步提升。(4)除广西、海南、河北外,其他地区港航服务业发展水平均有不同程度提升,其中上海起到带头发展的作用,广东、江苏提升最为明显,最终与上海并列处于高值区。(5)上海在港航服务业的发展规模、发展效益、发展潜力3个维度都位居第一;广东在发展基础上稳居第一并在发展规模和发展潜力上位居第二的位置;江苏综合表现突出,基础条件位于第二,发展规模、发展效益、发展潜力都位居第三;河北、广西、海南在4个维度均表现较差。(6)基于GMM模型的中国沿海地区港航服务业发展水平的影响因素分析结果显示产业结构、对外开放、腹地经济、信息技术对港航服务业发展水平均呈现正相关,其中产业结构、腹地经济、信息技术以较高显著水平通过检验。
Based on the relevant theories of port and shipping service industry,combined with the characteristics of China's current development of port and shipping service industry,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the development level of port and shipping service industry from four aspects:basic conditions,development scale,development benefits and development potential,uses fuzzy evaluation method to measure and analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation and influencing factors of the development level of port and shipping service industry in China's coastal areas(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2006 to 2017,and the results show that:(1)The comprehensive score of the development level of port and shipping service industry in China's coastal areas has increased from 0.099 in 2006 to 0.241 in 2017,showing a steady upward trend year by year,with an average annual growth rate of 8.54%.(2)From 2006 to 2012,some areas with development in the median value area developed rapidly,and further concentrated in higher-level areas;From 2012 to 2017,the bipolar pattern of port and shipping service industry development in China's coastal areas was prominent;During the study period,the development rate of the former port and shipping service industry was higher than that of the former port and shipping service industry with a low development level.(3)The overall improvement rate of the development scale of port and shipping service industry in China's coastal areas is significantly higher than the overall improvement speed of its development efficiency,development potential and development basic conditions.The development scale of port and shipping service industry has expanded rapidly,and the quality of industrial development needs to be further improved.(4)In addition to Guangxi,Hainan and Hebei,the development level of port and shipping service industry in other regions has been improved to varying degrees,with Shanghai playing a leading role in development,Guangzhou and Jiangsu being the most obvious,ultimately ranking alongside Shanghai as high-value areas.(5)Shanghai ranks first in the three dimensions of development scale,development efficiency and development potential of the port and shipping service industry;Guangdong ranks first on the basis of development and second in terms of development scale and development potential;Jiangsu's comprehensive performance is outstanding,the basic conditions are ranked second,and the development scale,development efficiency and development potential are ranked third;Hebei,Guangxi and Hainan performed poorly in four dimensions.(6)The analysis results of the influencing factors of the development level of port and shipping service industry in China's coastal areas based on GMM model show that industrial structure,opening up,hinterland economy and information technology are positively correlated with the development level of port and shipping service industry,among which industrial structure,hinterland economy and information technology pass the test at a high and significant level.
作者
冯孝辉
FENG Xiaohui(Research Center for Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)
出处
《海洋经济》
2024年第1期10-22,共13页
Marine Economy
关键词
港航服务业
时空分异
模糊物元
影响因素
Port and shipping service industry
Spatiotemporal differentiation
Fuzzy matter elements
Influencing factors
