摘要
采用年最大值法挑选肇庆市中心城区降水样本,并尝试用皮尔逊Ⅲ型、耿贝尔型、指数分布型3种概率分布函数进行拟合试验,结果表明:皮尔逊Ⅲ型和耿贝尔型通过KS检验;耿贝尔型暴雨强度的精度误差较皮尔逊Ⅲ型为优,最终获得耿贝尔型暴雨强度公式。根据公式计算单一重现期暴雨强度发现,1h降水量达50mm的重现期为2年以内,即每年都会发生;24h降水量达暴雨量级的重现期为2年以内,即每年都会发生;特大暴雨量级的降水的重现期为50年以上。在面对超百年一遇的极端降雨时,需要完善应急管理措施;在预测有强降雨过程来临时,及时做好城市排水管道、调蓄池、行泄通道的调度。
In this paper,the sample of precipitation for the central districts of Zhaoqing was identified using the method of annual maximum,and three probability functions,namely,the Pearson typeⅢdistribu⁃tion,the Gumble distribution and the exponential distribution,were used to run fitting tests.The results are shown as follows.The accuracy of both the Pearson typeⅢand Gumble distributions passed the KS test,and the accuracy of hard rain intensity following the Gumble distribution was superior over that of the Pearson typeⅢdistribution,which was eventually credited as the formula for hard rain intensity.It was then used to determine the intensity for hard rains that would recur in single periods.The findings are presented as fol⁃lows.The recurrence period for 1⁃h rainfall of 50 mm is within two years,which suggests an annual event,that of 24⁃h rainfall at the intensity level of hard rain is also within two years,which also suggests an annual occurrence,and that of rainfall at the level of exceptionally hard rain is more than 50 years.In coping with extreme rains that occur once in a hundred years or more,responses and managements have to be perfected.When intense rains are expected to be around,timely dispatches should be made of urban drainage pipes,regulation and storage ponds,and drainage channels.
作者
陈荣泉
张聪慧
CHEN Rong-quan;ZHANG Cong-hui(Zhaoqing Meteorological Service,Zhaoqing 526040;Zhaoqing University,Zhaoqing 526040)
出处
《广东气象》
2024年第2期6-10,共5页
Guangdong Meteorology
关键词
气候学
暴雨强度
概率分布曲线
重现期
肇庆市
climatology
hard rain intensity
curve of probability distribution
recurrence period
Zha⁃oqing
