摘要
在数字经济浪潮下,人工智能、区块链等数字化技术正在重塑银行业面貌,对银行系统性风险产生重要影响。然而,鲜有学者对该问题进行深入研究。为此,本文首先在经典银行道德风险模型的基础上引入数字化转型、网络关联性和外部冲击等因素,分析数字化转型对银行系统性风险的影响机理。然后,采用文本挖掘方法,通过手工收集建立的2012-2020年中国商业银行数字化转型指数的季度平衡面板数据进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)数字化转型能够有效降低网络关联性和银行系统性风险;(2)网络关联性是数字化转型降低银行系统性风险的重要影响渠道;(3)数字化转型对小银行系统性风险水平的抑制作用更加显著;(4)数字化转型能够弱化经济政策不确定性、国际金融市场波动等负外部冲击对银行系统性风险的不利影响。在此基础上,对完善银行系统性风险防范体系以及监管机制提出了若干建议。
The digital economy is a key driving force for stable economic growth and a new engine for highquality economic development.With the maturity of new-generation information technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence,a large number of commercial banks have embraced digital technology and initiated digital transformation,making digital transformation a new round of arms race among banks.However,it is worth noting that the essence of digital transformation is an innovation,which does bring new opportunities for the development of the banking industry,but any kind of innovation means the re-setting of the rules of the game,thus triggering a new change in the market structure.In other words,the dividends brought by digital transformation should be seized,but also whether digital transformation will bring new uncertainties and chal⁃lenges to the banking system and financial supervision should be considered.This shows that the impact of digital transformation on commercial banks and financial supervision has become an important topic that scholars pay close attention to.Then,the following questions should be considered:Has the digital transformation of banks exacerbated or reduced systemic risks in the banking industry?If the influence relationship between them exists,what is the internal transmission mechanism?There are important theoretical and practical significance for the promotion of digital transformation of commercial banks,and useful reference for the improvement of the financial regulatory policy framework in this paper.Factors such as digital transformation,network relevance and external shock are introduced into the classic bank moral hazard model to analyze the inherent impact of digital transformation on banking systemic risk.On this basis,the 2012-2020 quarterly panel data of China Commercial Bank Digital Transformation Index established by manual collection and text mining methods are used to conduct empirical testing.The results show that:(i)Digital transformation can effectively reduce network relevance and banking systemic risk.(ii)Digital transformation will curb banking systemic risk by significantly reducing the degree of network relevance of commercial banks.That is,network relevance is an important channel through which digital transformation affects banking systemic risk.(iii)The digital transformation has a more significant restraining effect on the systemic risk level of small banks.(iv)Digital transformation can weaken the negative impact of negative external shocks such as weakening the new crown pneumonia epidemic and international financial market volatility on banking systemic risk.Digital transforma⁃tion can reduce the adverse impact of negative external shocks such as the fluctuations in international financial markets on banking systemic risk.The findings have important policy implications.The research results will help to promote the risk management of commercial banks and the integrated development of digital technology and commercial banks,such as encouraging commercial banks to carry out digital transformation and improving their digital risk management capabilities.Different types of commercial banks can carry out differentiated layout for digitization and try to find the most suitable digital strategy for themselves.Regulators should promulgate management measures for the digital transformation of the financial industry,formulate relevant standards in the fields of artificial intelligence,big data and other digital technologies,so as to regulate the application of digital technologies in the financial system.
作者
吴文洋
蒋海
唐绅峰
Wu Wenyang;Jiang Hai;Tang Shenfeng(School of Finance,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China;School of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China)
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期9-19,共11页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72201096,71973053)
湖南省自然科学基金青年项目(2022JJ40134)。
关键词
数字化转型
网络关联性
银行系统性风险
外部冲击
digital transformation
network relevance
banking systemic risk
external shock
