摘要
[目的]山东省GDP稳居全国前列,战略地位十分重要,然而水资源短缺一直严重制约着经济社会的快速发展。水资源承载力作为水资源刚性约束的重要体现,对其研究是区域经济社会可持续发展的迫切需求[方法]本文结合综合赋权法和TOPSIS模型对2011-2020年山东省16个地市的水资源承载能力进行定量评价,并探讨水资源承载力在不同水平年的分布特征,最后应用障碍度模型对水资源承载力障碍因子进行诊断。[结果]①2011-2020年,山东省水资源承载力呈先下降后上升的趋势,但总体较低(0.39);其在丰水年最高(0.68)、枯水年最低(0.19)。②空间上,水资源承载力表现出明显的区域差异。从多年平均状况来看,全省水资源承载力总体较差,即使水资源承载力最高的济南市也仅0.51,威海市更是低至0.24。从不同水平年来看,丰水年大部分地市水资源承载力偏高,而鲁西北地区和烟台市较低(<0.60);平水年水资源承载力自西南向东北总体呈降低态势;枯水年所有地市水资源承载力均较低(<0.40),空间差异不大。③水资源总量、产水模数、生态用水率、地表水资源占比、废水排放量是水资源承载力的主要障碍因子,尤其水资源禀赋是制约水资源承载力提升的最大障碍。[结论]针对全省水资源匮乏及水资源承载力较弱的特点,开源节流和提质增效是当前及未来山东省生态优先保护和经济社会高质量发展的关键。
[Objective]The GDP of Shandong Province ranks among the top in China,and the province has an important strategic position in the regional development of China.However,water shortage has been restricting the rapid socioeconomic development in Shandong Province.The research on water resources carrying capacity(WRCC),as an important indicator of rigid constraint of water resources,is crucial for regional sustainable development.[Methods]This study quantitatively evaluated the WRCC of 16 cities in Shandong Province during 2011-2020 and explored its distribution in different hydrological years,using the comprehensive weighting method and TOPSIS model.Then,the obstacle degree model was applied to diagnose the main obstacle factors of WRCC.[Results]This research found that:(1)Water resources carrying capacity was the highest(0.68)for the wet year(2020)but lowest(0.19)for the dry year(2014),which was overall weak(0.39)in Shandong Province.From 2011 to 2020,WRCC decreased first and then increased,which changed with the water resources endowment.(2)Spatially,WRCC showed an obvious regional difference.Annual average WRCC over the whole province was overall low,with the the highest in Jinan City(0.51)and the lowest in Weihai City(0.24).In the wet year,WRCC of most cities were relatively high,but the lowest was found in Yantai City(O.30)and WRCC was also low in northwest Shandong Province.In the normal year,WRCC overall decreased from the southwest to the northeast of the province.In the dry year,WRCC for all cities was low and thus showed insignificant difference.(3)Total amount of water resources,water production modulus,ecological water use ratio,surface water resources proportion,and wastewater discharge were the main obstacle factors of WRCC.Accordingly,water resources and ecological environment were the main obstacles to WRCC improvement.[Conclusion]Due to the water scarcity and low WRCC,at present and in the future,expanding water sources and reducing expenditure as well as improving quality and increasing efficiency will be crucial for the ecological priority protection and high-quality socioeconomic development in Shandong Province.
作者
姜德娟
余灏哲
李丽娟
JIANG Dejuan;YU Haozhe;LI Lijuan(Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation,Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,CAS,Yantai 264003,China;School of Humanities,Shaanxi University of Technology,Hanzhong 723001,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Shandong Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes,Yantai 264003,China)
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期538-548,共11页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72050001)
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2022ME100)
陕西省社会科学基金项目(2021D066)。
关键词
水资源承载力
综合赋权
TOPSIS模型
障碍度模型
山东省
water resources carrying capacity
comprehensive weight
TOPSIS model
obstacle degree model
Shandong Province
