摘要
由于世界气候变暖而导致的害虫空间分布格局的巨大变化,增加了害虫预防难度。通过MaxEnt模型,结合GIS方法,模拟松墨天牛在中国的潜在分布区,预测、对比、分析松墨天牛在未来3种气候情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下分布范围和空间布局,及其中心节点移动的规律。结果表明:所有AUC值均超过0.95,准确性也处于“极好”的状态。在当前气候环境下,松墨天牛在中国的适生区范围为90°~125°E,20°~41°N,由西向东呈连续分布,集中分布于我国东南部;在未来气候条件下,中适生区面积减少,低适生区、高适生区面积增加,并向高纬度、高海拔地区扩散,RCP8.5扩散范围最大。适生区中心点向西北、东北方向迁移,迁移趋势在高浓度排放情景下(RCP 8.5)响应最为剧烈。为松墨天牛的合理区划提供了有效手段,为应对气候变暖提供了理论依据。
Due to the global warming,the spatial distribution pattern of pests has changed greatly,which increases the difficulty of pest prevention.In this paper,using MaxEnt model and GIS method,the potential suitable distribution area of Monochamus alternatus in China was simulated.At the same time,the distribution range and spatial arrangement in three climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5),and the movement law of its mean center were predicted,compared and analyzed.The results showed that all AUC values were over 0.95,and the accuracy was in an"excellent"state.Under current conditions,the suitable range of Monochamus alternatus in China was 20-41°N,90-125°E,which was distributed continuously from west to east and concentrated in the southeast of China.Under future climate scenarios,the moderately suitable area will decrease,while the lwo and high suitable areas will increase,and will spread to the high latitude and altitude areas,with RCP8.5 having the largest diffusion range.The mean center of the suitable area predicted to move northwest or northeast under different scenarios,and the migration trend was the most intense in the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario(RCP8.5).The results provide an effective means for rational zoning of Monochamus alternatus and a theoretical basis for coping with climate warming.
作者
刘勇
李祥乾
李阳娣
杨伟
杨桦
LIU Yong;LI Xiangqian;LI Yangdi;YANG Wei;YANG Hua(Xingwen Forestry and Bamboo Industry Development Service Center,Xingwen 644400,China;Kangding Forestry and Grassland Bureau,Kangding 626000,China;Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of Sichuan Education Ddepartment,College of Forestry,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China)
出处
《四川林业科技》
2024年第2期78-87,共10页
Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology
基金
四川省科技厅国际合作项目(2021YFH0160)。
