摘要
四川盆地致密气资源丰富,勘探开发前景广阔。近年来,重新认识致密气富集规律,快速推进一体化评价,实现地质、工程双突破,四川盆地侏罗系沙溪庙组致密气规模上产成效显著。产量峰值预测是天然气发展目标确定的重要依据,为此,基于盆地致密气历史产量具有较大的起伏性和波动性的特点,结合峰值预测模型适用条件,选取哈伯特(Hubbert)及沃德(Ward)模型预测盆地致密气峰值产量。预测过程中,研判最终可采储量为数学模型与资源潜力的切入点,将储量发现与产量增长预测有效联动,建立主控因素约束下的两种储-产耦合预测模型。研究结果表明:①四川盆地致密气产量将在未来10年保持快速增长,预计可实现百亿立方米上产。②四川盆地致密气,Hubbert模型预测2036年达到70×10^(8)~105×10^(8)m^(3)的产量峰值,相对稳产期6年;Ward模型预测2045年达到38×10^(8)~90×10^(8)m^(3)的产量峰值,相对稳产期6年。③预测结果准确率和相关性分析表明,相比于Ward模型,Hubbert模型的产量预测结果具有更高的准确率和精度。通过构建符合致密气产量“波浪式”增长特点的高精度预测模型,攻克了传统预测方法拟合差、预测难的问题,实现致密气产量峰值预测由定性到定量的飞跃,为四川盆地致密气发展目标的确定提供技术支撑。
There are abundant tight-gas resources in Sichuan Basin,exhibiting a bright prospect in exploration and development.In recent years,accumulation rules have been regained for tight gas to made great progress in its integrated assessment and to achieve both geological and engineering breakthrough.As a result,the large-scale production increase has been obtained apparently in this domain from the Shaximiao Formation,Sichuan Basin.To predict peak production is important for ensuring goals of natural-gas development.So,considered great changes in tight-gas historical production in the basin,both Hubbert and Ward models were employed for predicting this peak.In the prediction,the ultimate recoverable reserves were conducted as an entry point between mathematical models and resource potential,and the reserve discovery was effectively linked with the production-increasing prediction.Finally,two reserve-production coupled prediction models were established under the constraint of main controls.Results show that(i)in Sichuan Basin,the tight-gas production is expected to maintain a rapid growth in the next decade,possibly amounting to the production capacity of ten billion cubic meters;(ii)the peak predicted from the Hubbert model will achieve(70–105)×10^(8) m^(3)in 2036 and hold a relatively stable production for 6 years,while that from the Ward model of(38–90)×10^(8) m^(3)in 2045 and the stable production also for 6 years;and(iii)predicted findings from the former are more accurate than those from another one.In conclusion,the established high-precision prediction models that conform to the“wave”growth of tight-gas production may overcome some problems in traditional prediction ways,for example poor fitting and difficulty in prediction.In addition,they make the leap from qualitative to quantitative prediction on the peak production of tight gas,and provide a technical support for figuring out the goals of tight-gas development in Sichuan Basin.
作者
余果
李海涛
方一竹
YU Guo;LI Haitao;FANG Yizhu(Planning Department,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Ex-ploration and Development Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China)
出处
《天然气勘探与开发》
2024年第2期89-96,共8页
Natural Gas Exploration and Development
基金
四川省科技计划项目(编号:2021JDR0401)。
关键词
致密气
产量峰值
产量预测
哈伯特模型
沃德模型
Tight gas
Peak production
Production prediction
Hubbert model
Ward model
