摘要
近20年来,全国输电线路的长度显著增长,在线路工程建设中,经济性成本是至关重要的考量因素之一。通过构建输电线路工程全寿命周期成本量化模型,对辽宁省A市某220 kV新建线路工程采用JL/G1A-400/35型钢芯铝绞线及JL(GD)/G1A-400/35型钢芯高导电率铝绞线下的经济成本差异进行对比分析。采用线性回归分析、灰色预测GM(1,1)模型以及自回归差分移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型对工程运行期输电线路的负荷水平进行预测,得出组合预测分析方法下线路工程的售电效益;同时,量化节能导线的减碳效益,分析负荷增长水平、天气、海拔及投资折现率对线路运行成本的灵敏度,对比评估2种导线技术方案的经济性指标。研究结果表明,作为一种节能导线,钢芯高导电率铝绞线可以降低输电线路工程的运行维护成本,在考虑售电效益的同时为线路工程带来额外的减碳效益,在工程的全寿命周期内具有良好的经济性及低碳性。
Over the past two decades,the length of transmission lines in China has increased significantly.When constructing line projects,economic costs are one of crucial considerations.This paper compares and analyzes the economic cost differences between using JL/G1A-400/35 steel-core aluminum stranded wire and JL(GD)/G1A-400/35 steel-core high-conductivity aluminum stranded wire in a new 220 kV line project in A city of Liaoning province by constructing a quantitative model of the whole life cycle cost(LCC)of the transmission line project.It uses linear regression analysis,grey prediction GM(1,1)model,and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to forecast the load level of transmission lines during the operation period of the project,and determines the electricity sales benefits of the project under the combined forecasting and analysis method.Meanwhile,it quantizes the carbon reduction benefits of energy-saving conductors and analyzes the sensitivity of the operation cost of the transmission line on the level of load growth,weather conditions and altitude.It also compares and evaluates the economic indicators of the two conductor technology schemes.The research results indicate that steel-core high-conductivity aluminum stranded wire can serve as an energy-saving conductor,reducing operation and maintenance costs for transmission line projects.Additionally,it provides carbon reduction benefits and has good economic and low-carbon performance throughout the project’s life cycle,while also considering the benefits of electricity sales.
作者
范蓝心
赵淑媛
陈衡
王奕楠
辛诚
姜雪
FAN Lanxin;ZHAO Shuyuan;CHEN Heng;WANG Yinan;XIN Cheng;JIANG Xue(School of Energy,Power and Mechanical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Economic and Technical Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China;Economic and Technical Research Institute of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang,Liaoning 110015,China)
出处
《广东电力》
北大核心
2024年第4期80-89,共10页
Guangdong Electric Power
基金
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5200-202356133A-1-1-ZN)。
关键词
输电线路工程
节能导线
负荷预测
减碳效益
全寿命周期成本
灵敏度分析
transmission line project
energy-saving wire
load forecasting benefits
carbon reduction benefits
electricity sales efficiency
economic evaluation
sensitivity analysis
