摘要
目的了解持续控制大气细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM_(2.5))浓度的人群健康收益。方法收集2015—2020年宜宾市大气污染物的日均浓度、气象因素及死亡数据,采用广义相加模型(generalized additive models,GAM)分析大气PM_(2.5)浓度与居民非意外死亡寿命损失年(years of life lost,YLL)的关系,假设空气质量达到2021年世界卫生组织空气质量指南(World Health Organization Air Quality Standards,WHO AQG)和中国国家环境空气质量二级标准时可以避免的YLL,同时根据性别和年龄分组寻找易感人群。结果大气PM_(2.5)(lag0)浓度每增加10μg/m^(3)时,居民非意外死亡YLL增加0.72(95%CI:0.68~0.76)年,男性(lag01)和女性(lag03)分别增加0.61(95%CI:0.55~0.67)年和0.91(95%CI:0.84~0.99)年,>65岁(lagO2)和≤65岁(lag0)分别增加1.12(95%CI:1.05~1.19)年和0.45(95%CI:0.39~0.50)年。PM_(2.5)浓度达到WHO AQG的标准时和国家二级标准时的可避免YLL分别为929.23(95%CI:877.02~981.44)年和124.70(95%CI:117.69~131.71)年。结论大气PM_(2.5)污染可能增加居民非意外死亡YLL,尤其对女性和老年人群(>65岁)的影响更为明显。当PM_(2.5)浓度达到更低浓度阈值时,可以获得更高的健康收益。
Objective To explore the health benefits of continuous control of atmospheric PM_(2.5)concentration.Methods The average daily concentration of atmospheric pollutants,meteorological factors and mortality data in Yibin City from 2015-2020 were collected.Generalized additive models(GAM)were used to analyze the relationship between PM_(2.5)concentration and years of life lost(YLL)The avoidable YLL was calculated assuming that the air quality meet the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines(WHO AQG)and China's National Ambient Air Quality Standard Level 2.Gender and age groups were used to identify susceptible populations.Results When the concentration of PM_(2.5)(lag0)increased by 10μg/m^(3),the non-acidental death YLL of residents increased by 0.72(95%CI:0.68-0.76)years,male(lag01)and female(lag03)increased by 0.61(95%CI:0.55-0.67)and 0.91(95%CI:0.84-0.99)years,respectively.At the same time>65(lag02)years old and≤65(lag0)years old increased by1.12(95%CI:1.05-1.19)and 0.45(95%CI:0.39-0.50)years,respectively.The YLL that could be avoided when PM_(2.5)concentration reached the WHO AQG standard and the national secondary standard was 929.23(95%CI:877.02-981.44)and 124.70(95%CI:117.69-131.71)years,respectively.Conclusions PM_(2.5)pollution may increase non-acidental deaths YLL,especially in women and the elderly(>65 years old).When PM_(2.5)concentrations reach lower concentration thresholds,higher health gains can be achieved.
作者
尤安琦
肖叶
黄雁林
陈朝琼
谢辉
于力力
YOU Anqi;XIAO Ye;HUANG Yanlin;CHEN Zhaoqiong;XIE Hui;YU Lili(School of Public Health,Chengdu Medical College,Chengdu Sichuan,610500,China;Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control Department,Yibin Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yibin Sichuan,644000,China)
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2024年第4期443-446,共4页
Occupation and Health
基金
成都医学院-宜宾市疾病预防控制中心联合科研基金(2021LHYB02)。
关键词
细颗粒物
寿命损失年
广义相加模型
健康收益评估
Fine particulate matter
Years of life lost
Generalized additive models
Assessment of health benefits
