摘要
我国陆地边境地区在国家总体安全、区域协调发展和对外开放等重大战略上占有独特地位。人口之于边境地区安全、发展具有特殊地位和重要意义。文章在探讨边境人口预测必要性与可行性的基础上,利用第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据,以队列要素法为基础,对未来50年我国陆地边境地区人口增长和人口结构变动趋势进行了多情景预测。预测结果显示,无论在何种预测方案下,未来陆地边境地区的人口负增长趋势都将长期延续,2050~2060年,人口内生负增长趋势将在所有边境地区蔓延开来。在考虑人口迁移的情况下,陆地边境人口总规模下降速度更快,尤其在2040~2070年后,人口迁移流动对人口负增长的加速作用将更为明显。人口结构方面,未来边境人口老龄化速度将更快。劳动年龄人口比重和育龄妇女的比重则将持续下降。考虑人口迁移的情况下,吉林、黑龙江、辽宁、内蒙古陆地边境地区还将面临严峻的人口结构失衡与生育潜力削弱的问题。要立足边境人口负增长将长期持续的现实,重视提高边境人口生产生活条件,增强居留稳定性;充分发挥边境地区政策优势与固有优势,培养与吸引人才;提高边境地区生育潜力,放宽边境生育限制,关注生育主体的需求;充分考虑不同边境地区发展条件,探索符合边境地区现实情况的人口方案。
China’s land border areas occupy a unique position in the strategies of overall national security,regional development and opening-up.Population has a special status and important significance in the security and develop⁃ment of border areas.Based on the data of the sixth and seventh national population census,this paper prepares a multiscenarios projection of China’s border area population over the next 50 years.The projection results show that the nega⁃tive population growth trend in border areas will continue for a long time in the future.And from 2050 to 2060,the de⁃cline trend of natural population growth will spread in all border areas.In the case of migration,the total population size of land border will decline faster,especially from 2040 to 2070,the acceleration of migration will be more obvious.Un⁃der the trend of negative population growth,the aging process of border population will be faster.The share of the work⁃ing-age population and the share of women of childbearing age will continue to decline.When migration is considered,the land border areas of Jilin,Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Inner Mongolia will face severe problems of population struc⁃ture imbalance and fertility potential weakening.We should pay more attention to improving the production and living conditions of the border population and enhance the stability of residence.Give full play to the policy advantages and in⁃herent advantages of border areas to train and attract talents.Improve the fertility potential of border areas,ease the fer⁃tility restrictions at the border area,and pay high attention to the needs of women.The development conditions of differ⁃ent border areas should also be fully considered,and appropriate population plans that meet the development of border areas should be explored.
作者
盛丹阳
陈卫
SHENG Dan-yang;CHEN Wei(School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第3期11-24,共14页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目:中国少数民族人口迁移流动与民族互嵌格局形成研究(项目编号:20&ZD172)。
关键词
边境人口
人口负增长
小区域人口预测
队列要素法
Border Population
Negative Population Growth
Small Area Population Projection
Cohort-component Method
