摘要
丝绸贸易是丝绸之路沿线商业的缩影,对全球丝绸贸易的网络特征进行分析,有助于系统地了解丝织业贸易的发展趋势。选取2014—2022年国际丝绸贸易数据,通过统计对比和复杂网络分析的方法,对丝绸进口贸易额、出口贸易额、人均贸易额、贸易伙伴数量进行分析,构建了全球丝绸贸易网络,并对网络特征进行研究。研究表明:2014—2022年间,全球丝绸贸易额呈现波动态势,2020年出现明显下滑;意大利、中国、印度等国家(地区)拥有较多的贸易额和贸易伙伴,是丝绸贸易大国;国家经济发展水平对丝绸贸易存在一定影响,发达国家在全球丝绸贸易中存在较大影响力;全球丝绸贸易网络呈现复杂性和地域性特征,贸易往来集中分布在亚洲、欧洲和北美洲,邻国之间活动密切;丝绸贸易大国在进口网络中具有较大吸引力,在出口网络中具有较大辐射力。文章直观地展示了全球丝绸贸易格局的结构特征,对全球丝绸贸易现状进行总结,从贸易格局、经济体系、产业链构建等方面提出了促进丝绸贸易发展的对策与建议。
Silk trade epitomizes the commerce along the Silk Road,exerting a driving force in fostering economic and trade development as well as cultural exchange between the East and the West.Analyzing the global silk trade and its network characteristics helps to systematically comprehend the sustainable trade trends within the silk industry.By selecting trade data on global silk trade from 2014 to 2022,and employing a comparative statistical analysis methodology,insights were gained into the fluctuating trends of global silk trade during the aforementioned period.Further investigation was conducted by focusing on the trade data from 2018 to 2022,to delve into the import and export values of silk among nations worldwide.Moreover,a population and economic analysis was performed by selecting the top 30 countries( regions) in terms of import and export trade volume in 2022.Comparative analysis was conducted to examine the interrelationships between per capita import and export trade values,per capita GDP,and population size.Based on global silk trade data,a trade network was constructed to analyze the in-degree and out-degree centrality of countries(regions) by using import and export data from 2021 to 2022.This analysis aimed to determine the number and changes in trading partners for major silk trading countries(regions) in the past two years.Additionally,the relationship between the import and export values of major trading countries(regions) with their trade partners was compared to further analyze the characteristics of silk trade for each country(region).Furthermore,weighted network centrality was utilized to visualize the global silk trading countries(regions) and their trade relationships in 2022.By examining the size of nodes and the density of connections,this visualization provided an intuitive representation of the import and export capabilities of major silk trading countries(regions).It highlighted the distinct contrast between silk trade giants and ordinary trading nations,and showcased the geographical distribution of silk trade.Representative countries(regions) that consistently ranked high in trade volume and exhibited stable fluctuations over the five-year period were analyzed to understand the origins of their import and export trade.This endeavor aimed to explore the trade trends and cooperative dynamics among major silk trading nations globally.Additionally,a group of representative source countries(regions) for export trade was enumerated for comprehensive analysis.Based on the econometric analysis of trade volume and complex network analysis method,this paper analyzed the development trend,evolution process and structural characteristics of the global silk trade pattern in recent years from the dimensions of global silk import trade volume,export trade volume,per capita trade volume and trading partners.Research suggests that from 2014 to 2022,the global silk trade volume exhibited a fluctuating trend,with a significant decline in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Italy and India had consistently been high-importing countries(regions) in the global silk trade,while China and Italy had long dominated the global silk export sector.Italy,China,and India not only had significant trade volume in the trade network but had also established extensive import and export trade partnerships.The per capita economic development level had a certain influence on silk trade,with developed countries(regions) having a competitive advantage in the global silk trade.Although countries(regions) like China and India had high trade volume,their per capita trade volume was relatively low.The global silk import and export trade network exhibited complex characteristics,with silk trade giants having a strong attractiveness in the import network and a significant radiating effect in the export network.In the post-pandemic era,maintaining a stable international silk trade pattern is crucial for promoting the development of the silk trade.Driven by economic recovery and global trade globalization,establishing a circular economic system and promoting green and low-carbon development in the silk industry are the core principles for sustainable trade development.Additionally,it is essential for both businesses and governments to improve the global silk trade value chain from the production,processing,and transportation aspects.By considering the characteristics of silk markets,industrial structures,and location advantages in various countries(regions),extending the silk industry chain and expanding the silk trade market will remain a joint effort for both enterprises and governments.
作者
周子傲
高士雅
张永礼
李媛
ZHOU Ziao;GAO Shiya;ZHANG Yongli;LI Yuan(School of Urban Geology and Engineering,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China;College of Economics and Management,Tianjin University of Science&Technology,Tianjin 300222,China)
出处
《现代纺织技术》
北大核心
2024年第5期73-83,共11页
Advanced Textile Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(21BTJ049)。
关键词
丝绸
贸易格局
复杂网络分析
贸易额
网络特征
silk
trade pattern
complex network analysis
volume of trade
network characteristics
