摘要
利用自动气象站观测数据,采用误差分析、有效降水时次占比等方法评估2022年9月—2023年8月省级降水实况分析产品在北京地区的一致性和准确性,并从累积降水量、降水强度、逐小时降水量误差等方面对“23·7”极端降水过程进行分析。结果表明:省级降水实况分析产品在北京地区的均方根误差不足1 mm,平均绝对偏差低于0.16 mm,与自动气象站观测结果接近。省级降水实况分析产品误差随降水量等级增加而增大,小雨等级降水被高估,中雨及以上等级降水被低估;误差空间分布差异明显,在中雨和暴雨等级下,最大负偏差均出现在延庆区,最大正偏差均出现在昌平区。“23·7”极端降水过程中,省级降水实况分析产品的平均均方根误差为1.8 mm,平均绝对偏差为0.806 mm,降水强度与自动气象站观测随时间变化趋势一致,较真实地反映了降水强度的变化趋势。
The national precipitation real-time analysis product is a gridded product developed using probability density matching,Bayesian model averaging,multi grid variation,optimal interpolation and other technologies by National Meteorological Information Center.It has advantages of high accuracy,high quality,and spatiotemporal continuity,and is widely used in national nowcasting forecasting operations.In September 2022,National Meteorological Information Center issues a provincial multi-source fusion real-time analysis system to promote the collaborative application of precipitation analysis in different provinces.The same core multi-source fusion algorithms for real-time precipitation analysis products are applied in this system,allowing access to additional provincial local observations.The consistency and accuracy of the provincial precipitation analysis products in Beijing from September 2022 to August 2023 are evaluated by automatic weather station observations,error analysis,effective precipitation time proportion,and other methods.“23·7”extreme precipitation event is also analyzed in terms of cumulative precipitation,precipitation intensity,and hourly precipitation error.Results show that root mean square error of the provincial precipitation analysis product is less than 1 mm,and the average absolute deviation is below 0.16 mm,which closely aligns with observations from automatic weather stations.The bias of provincial precipitation realtime analysis product increases with magnitude of precipitation.The intensity of light rain exceeds the observation,while the spatial distribution difference of bias is evident.The maximum negative deviation occurs in both moderate rain and rainstorm magnitudes of Yanqing,while the maximum positive deviation is observed at Changping.During the extreme precipitation event of“23·7”,the spatial distribution of provincial precipitation real-time analysis product is largely consistent with observations from automatic weather stations.The precipitation intensity is consistent with the trend of time variation observed by automatic weather stations,with an average root mean square error of 1.8 mm and an average absolute deviation of 0.806 mm,which more accurately reflects the trend of precipitation intensity variation.Overall,the provincial precipitation real-time analysis product has high accuracy in Beijing and can reflect the spatial distribution of precipitation,but the estimate is lower than the observation in the precipitation course of local heavy rainstorm.
作者
赵文芳
王蕙莹
孟慧芳
缪宇鹏
黄明明
范敏
唐伟
Zhao Wenfang;Wang Huiying;Meng Huifang;Miao Yupeng;Huang Mingming;Fan Min;Tang Wei(Beijing Meteorological Data Center,Beijing 100089;National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081;CMA Institute for Development and Program Design,Beijing 100081)
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期361-372,共12页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
中国气象局重点创新团队(CMA2023ZD01)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42005125)
国家气象信息中心结余资金项目(NM-ICJY202304)。
关键词
实况分析产品
评分技巧
多源融合
准确性检验
real-time analysis product
skill scoring
multi-source fusion
accuracy evaluation
