摘要
为探究我国煤矿现阶段安全管理水平,从煤矿近年死亡人数为切入点,分析灰色模型[Gray Model, GM(1,1)]、回归模型在煤矿事故的预测效果,进而建立“灰色+回归”模型。首先,建立灰色模型,利用后残差比值、小概率误差验证灰色模型的预测等级为“好”,满足改进要求;其次,对回归模型进行线性拟合,建立“灰色+回归”预测模型,并对3类模型的预测准确性进行评估;最后,利用“灰色+非线性回归”模型预测2023年煤矿死亡人数。结果显示:以2021—2022年数据为基准,“灰色+非线性回归”预测相对误差依次为4.5%和1.3%,预测结果接近实际值,适用于短中期预测;经分析,“灰色+非线性回归”对煤矿死亡人数预测具有较高的研究价值。2023年煤矿死亡人数控制在123~136人,煤矿死亡人数呈下降趋势。
To explore the current level of safety management in China coal mines,this paper uses the number of deaths in coal mines in recent years as an entry point to analyze the predictive performance and error sources of the GM(1,1)model and regression model for coal mine accidents.It proposes improvement methods and finally establishes a predictive model based on“grey+regression”.Firstly,a GM(1,1)model is established and its predictive level is verified as good by using a post-residual ratio and small probability error-index,which meets the improvement requirements.Secondly,a linear regression model is fitted and its error sources are analyzed.A“gray+regression”predictive model is established with the help of gray correlation degree.Lastly,the predictive errors of three models are compared and a“gray+nonlinear regression”model is used to predict the number of deaths in coal mines in 2023.The data show that:based on the actual number of deaths in previous years and the data obtained by the“gray+nonlinear regression”predictive model,a significance analysis is conducted and F=1661.67≥F 0.05(1,5)=6.608,indicating that there is a significant difference between two groups of data.Thus,the predictive model is validated and can be used for predicting coal mine deaths.Based on data from 2021 to 2022,relative errors for“gray+nonlinear regression”predictions are 4.5%and 1.3%respectively,which further improves predictive accuracy compared with the GM(1,1)model.The predictive results are closer to actual values.Compared with other models,the“gray+nonlinear regression”predictive model can perform continuous predictions and overcome short-term prediction limitations of the GM(1,1)model.According to predictive analysis,the number of deaths in coal mines in 2023 will be controlled between 123 and 136 people and show a downward trend.Safety management level in coal mines has been further improved.
作者
景国勋
卢一瑾
王远声
郭绍帅
彭乐
JING Guoxun;LU Yijin;WANG Yuansheng;GUO Shaoshuai;PENG Le(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan,China;Postdoctoral Mobile Station,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan,China;Flight College,Anyang Institute of Technology,Anyang 455000,Henan,China;International Joint Laboratory of Human-Machine Environment and Emergency Management,Anyang 455000,Henan,China;School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450000,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期1922-1929,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U1904210)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(22A440006)
河南省博士后启动基金项目(202103101)
安阳工学院博士后启动基金项目(BHJ2021002)。
关键词
安全工程
死亡人数
灰色模型
“灰色+非线性回归”模型
事故预测
safety engineering
number of fatalities
gray model
“gray+nonlinear regression”model
accident prediction
