摘要
合理评估台风对沿海区域的影响程度与风险对于科学抵御台风灾害而言十分重要,而我国具有详细的台风观测记录至今也仅有60多年的历史,这使得在推算具有一定重现期的极值风速及相应的极值波高和潮位等特征参数时存在局限性,同时台风观测样本量的不足也限制了如深度学习等数据驱动型模型在台风灾害预报中的应用。因此,有必要基于实际台风行进规律构建虚拟台风以克服历史数据量不足的问题。故本文采用基于核密度估计的经验路径模型,在西北太平洋海域构建了18 671场虚拟台风,将虚拟台风的起始与终止位置、发生频数、行进速度和行进方向等参数与实际发生的台风进行统计意义上的对比分析。结果表明,基于本文方法构建的虚拟台风总体上符合西北太平洋历史台风的行进规律。通过这些虚拟台风的构建,可为中国沿海极值波浪和风暴增水研究提供数据量足够且性能可靠的虚拟台风样本数据库。
Reliable assessment of the impact and risk of typhoons on coastal areas is very important for scientific resistance to typhoon disasters.China has a detailed typhoon observation record with a history of only 60 years,which makes it limited in estimating extreme wind speed with a long recurrence period and corresponding extreme wave height and tide level.The insufficient records also limits the application of data-driven models in typhoon dis-aster prediction.Therefore,it is necessary to construct synthetic typhoons based on the actual typhoon travel law to overcome the problem of insufficient historical observations.In this paper,18671 synthetic typhoons were con-structed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean by using the Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation,and the parameters such as the start and end position,frequency of occurrence,travel speed and direction of the synthet-ic typhoons were statistically compared and analyzed with historical typhoons.The results show that the synthetic typhoon constructed based on the proposed method is generally consistent with the traveling characteristics of his-torical typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.Through the construction of these synthetic typhoons,a synthetic typhoon database with sufficient data and reliable performance can be provided for the study of extreme wave and storm surge along the coast of China.
作者
徐晓武
陈永平
谭亚
刘畅
李尚鲁
车助镁
Xu Xiaowu;Chen Yongping;Tan Ya;Liu Chang;Li Shangu;Che Zhumei(The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Harbor,Costal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310007,China)
出处
《海洋学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期1-11,共11页
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008100)
浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF22D060010)
广州市南沙区水务局科技项目(2022-263)。
关键词
核密度估计
经验路径模型
虚拟台风
西北太平洋
kernel density estimation
Empirical Path Model
synthetic typhoon
Northwest Pacific Ocean
