摘要
利用常规地面和高空资料对2020年我国梅雨期暴雨特征进行初步分析,按照925hPa锋区性质对暴雨过程进行分型,最后通过两个典型暴雨个例讨论ECMWF数值预报的订正思路.结果表明:①在27次梅雨期区域性暴雨中,有26次暴雨与925hPa切变线位置吻合,只有18次与850hPa切变线位置吻合.②按照925hPa锋区位置和强弱,可将梅雨期暴雨分为无锋区暴雨、强锋区暴雨、弱锋区暴雨和混合型暴雨;按照锋区移动方向可将强锋区暴雨分为南压型、静止型和北抬型暴雨;按照暴雨落区与锋区位置关系可将弱锋区暴雨分为弱强迫暴雨和冷区暴雨.③EC对无锋区型暴雨预报较差,对强锋区暴雨预报有偏北趋势(20次中有14次偏北,2次正确,4次偏南),对弱锋区暴雨预报有偏南趋势(11次中有8次偏南,1次正确,2次偏北).④从典型暴雨个例上也能看到,925hPa切变线和温度锋区位置与暴雨落区相吻合;中尺度数值模式有时候能较好地弥补EC全球数值模式对锋区降水的不足.
The characteristics of Meiyu heavy rainfall in 2020 are analyzed by using the routine upper-air,surface observations and ECMWF forecast products.The heavy rainfall events are classified according to the characteristics of temperature front area at 925 hPa,and we discuss the revision ideas of ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).The results show that:①Among the 27 regional rainstorms in Meiyu,26 of them coincide with the shear position of 925 hPa,and only 18 of them coincide with the shear position of 850 hPa.②The heavy rainfall events can be divided into no frontal heavy rainfall,strong frontal sector heavy rainfall,weak frontal sector heavy rainfall and mixed sector heavy rainfall.③The ECMWF has less ability at no frontal heavy rainfall.For the strong frontal sector heavy rainfalls,there is a deviation trend to the north(of the 20 cases,14 cases are inclined north,2 cases are inclined correct and 4 cases are south),and deviation trend to the south for the weak frontal sector heavy rainfalls(of the 11 cases,8 cases are inclined south,1 case is correct and 2 cases are inclined north).④It can be found that the location of 925 hPa shear and temperature front area is consistent with the rainstorm falling area from the typical cases.The mesoscale numerical model can sometimes better make up for the deficiency of EC global numerical model for frontal precipitation.
作者
郑丽君
肖安
李浙华
洪俊
ZHENG Lijun;XIAO An;LI Zhehua;HONG Jun(Shangrao Meteorological Bureau,Shangrao 334000,Jiangxi China;Weather Forecast Open Laboratory of Jiangxi Province,Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory,Nanchang 330096,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2024年第5期720-729,共10页
Henan Science
基金
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-069)
江西省气象局面上项目(JX2021M01)。
关键词
梅雨
暴雨
订正方法
暖区暴雨
meiyu
heavy rainfall
correction method
warm area rainstorm
