摘要
战略性关键矿产资源产业链安全事关国家长远发展大计,事关国计民生和国家安全,从复杂系统的视角分析价格波动对产业链的传导机制,对于维护我国产业链安全,避免经济领域风险积聚具有重要意义。本文选取了与战略性关键金属矿产铁、锰、铬产业链相关的30个工业行业出厂价格指数(PPI)代表产业链上、中、下游的行业价格,构建滞后1—4期的复杂网络模型,同时测算价格波动溢出指数度量不同行业的溢出效应。结果表明:(1)价格波动可以在产业链不同环节之间进行传导,价格之间存在依存关系;(2)产业链不同环节价格波动的溢出效应不同,行业间价格波动的影响存在差异性,且随着时间的推移,上中游产业的溢出效应不会消失,还会逐渐积累;(3)价格波动明显增加了产业链关联企业特别是中下游企业的成本管控压力。基于此,建议:(1)建立战略性关键矿产资源产业链风险评价、预警机制和风险处置方案,增强风险防控能力,特别是在行业价格发生较大波动时,长短期结合对重点行业实施动态监管,进一步提升产业链的安全性;(2)提升矿产资源保障能力,同时,密切关注下游产业成本积压问题,有效应对产业链各环节价格波动对产业链安全带来的冲击,进一步增强产业链的稳定性;(3)深化矿产资源国际合作以及价格波动对产业链传导路径和机制的研究,降低矿产品供应来源地集中可能引发的风险,进一步提升产业链的竞争力。
The security of the industrial chain for strategic key mineral resources is crucial for the long-term development plans of the nation,impacting national economy,people's livelihoods,and national security.Analyzing the transmission mechanism of price fluctuations on the industrial chain from the perspective of complex systems is of great importance for maintaining the secur-ity of our country's industrial chains and avoiding the accumulation of economic risks.This paper selects the Producer Price In-dex(PPI)of 30 industrial sectors related to the industrial chains of strategic key metal minerals such as iron,manganese,and chromium,representing the upstream,midstream,and downstream industry prices.It constructs a complex network model with lags of 1-4 periods and calculates the price fluctuation spillover index to measure the spillover effects among different indus-tries.The results show:(1)Price fluctuations can be transmitted among different segments of the industrial chain,and there is a dependency relationship between prices;(2)The spillover effect of price fluctuations varies among different segments of the industrial chain,with industry-specific impacts of price fluctuations that differ and accumulate over time,especially in the up-stream and midstream industries;(3)Price fluctuations significantly increase the cost control pressure on related enterprises in the industrial chain,particularly those in the midstream and downstream sectors.Based on these findings,the following recom-mendations are proposed:(1)A risk assessment,early warning mechanism,and risk management plan for the industrial chain of strategic key mineral resources should be established to enhance risk prevention and control capabilities.Particularly during significant industry price fluctuations,dynamic regulation of key industries should be implemented in the short and long term to further improve the safety of the industrial chain;(2)The capacity to ensure mineral resource supply should be enhanced.Addi-tionally,attention should be paid to the accumulation of costs in downstream industries,effectively addressing the impacts of price fluctuations on the security of the industrial chain at all stages,thereby further enhancing its stability;(3)International cooperation in mineral resources and research into the transmission paths and mechanisms of price fluctuations on the industrial chain should be deepened.This approach will reduce the risks posed by the concentration of mineral product supply sources and further enhance the competitiveness of the industrial chain.
作者
付晶
张海亮
宋明媚
Fu Jing;Zhang Haiiang;Song Mingmei(School of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504,Yunnan,China)
出处
《学术探索》
CSSCI
2024年第5期101-110,共10页
Academic Exploration
关键词
价格波动
战略性关键矿产资源
产业链安全
复杂网络模型
price fluctuation
strategic key mineral resources
industrial chain security
complex network model
