摘要
宁夏光伏发电潜力巨大。近年来省域层面光伏电站选址开发存在盲目规划问题,量化评估光伏开发适宜性与发电潜力对省域能源消费结构调整具有重要意义。研究综合利用高精度气象、自然地理和经济社会数据,耦合AHP-DEMATEL-TEM综合赋权模型、GIS-MCDM光伏开发适宜性评价模型、PVsyst仿真模拟融合公式法的光伏发电潜力评估模型构建省域地面光伏开发潜力综合评估模型,对宁夏光伏开发适宜性进行空间显性评价,进而定量评估省域光伏发电潜力。结果表明:(1)综合赋权模型更适合省域地面光伏开发适宜性评价。用AHP赋权模型会高估适宜区发电潜力,使宁夏适宜区面积计算结果增加3.75%,同时低估不适宜区发电潜力,使不适宜区面积减少3.24%。(2)宁夏非常适宜区面积最大,不适宜区面积最小。西部、东部的光伏开发适宜性大于中部,南部最低。省域内非常适宜区面积为18934.5km^(2),占评估区域总面积的比重达36.56%。各市光伏开发适宜性从高到低为:吴忠市,中卫市,银川市,石嘴山市,固原市。(3)宁夏发电潜力巨大,且宁夏五市光伏发电潜力分布差异较大。若将宁夏省域内特别适宜区域发电潜力全部释放,年发电量将达到1.552×10^(12) kW·h,相当于宁夏2021年电力消费量的13.4倍,且开发9.1%的特别适宜区光伏发电潜力即可覆盖省域内火电完全替换为清洁能源的需求。宁夏五市光伏发电潜力从大到小为:吴忠市,中卫市,银川市,石嘴山市,固原市。研究结果为全国其他省域光伏发电潜力评估风险控制及光伏电站选址提供科学参考和指导建议。
Ningxia has huge potential for photovoltaic power generation,and in recent years,there is a blind planning problem in the site selection and development of photovoltaic power stations at the provincial level,so it is of great significance to quantitatively evaluate the suitability of photovoltaic development and power generation potential for the adjustment of provincial energy consumption structure.In this study,a comprehensive evaluation model of provincial ground photovoltaic development potential is constructed by comprehensively using high-precision meteorological,physical geography and economic and social data,coupled with the AHP-DEMATEL-TEM comprehensive weighting model,GIS-MCDM photovoltaic development suitability evaluation model,and photovoltaic power potential evaluation model of PVsyst simulation fusion formula method,and use it to evaluate the spatial explicit evaluation of the suitability of photovoltaic development in Ningxia,and then quantitatively evaluate the provincial photovoltaic power generation potential.The results show that:(1)The comprehensive weighting model is more suitable for the suitability evaluation of provincial ground photovoltaic development.The AHP weighting model overestimates the power generation potential of the suitable area,increasing the area of the suitable area in Ningxia by 3.75%,while underestimating the power generation potential of the unsuitable area,reducing the area of the unsuitable area by 3.24%.(2)Ningxia has the largest suitable area and the smallest unsuitable area.The suitability of photovoltaic development in the west and east is greater than that in the central part and the lowest is in the south,and the highly suitable area in the province is 18934.5 km²,accounting for 36.56%of the total assessed area.The suitability of photovoltaic development in various cities from high to low is as follows:Wuzhong City,Zhong City,Yinchuan City,Shizuishan City,and Guyuan City.(3)Ningxia has huge power generation potential,and the distribution of photovoltaic power generation potential in the five cities of Ningxia is quite different.If the power generation potential of the particularly suitable areas in Ningxia province is fully released,the annual power generation will reach 1.552×10^(12 )kW·h,which is equivalent to 13.4 times of Ningxia’s electricity consumption in 2021,and the development of 9.1%of the photovoltaic power generation potential in the special suitable areas can cover the demand for the complete replacement of thermal power with clean energy in the province.The potential for photovoltaic power generation in the five cities of Ningxia,from large to small,is as follows:Wuzhong City,Zhongwei City,Yinchuan City,Shizuishan City,and Guyuan City.The research results provide scientific reference and guidance for the assessment of photovoltaic power generation potential,risk control and the location of photovoltaic power stations in other provinces across the country.
作者
周茜
周桃元
ZHOU Qian;ZHOU Taoyuan(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102208,China)
出处
《电力科学与工程》
2024年第6期28-38,共11页
Electric Power Science and Engineering
基金
北京市社会科学基金资助项目(19GLB014)。
关键词
综合赋权模型
新型电力系统
省域光伏发电潜力
宁夏能源转型
comprehensive weighting model
new power system
provincial photovoltaic power generation potential
Ningxia energy transition
