摘要
风险评价是页岩气开发过程中的一项前期重要工作。为明确页岩气开发风险因素,结合风险识别理论和层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)对页岩气开发风险进行分析,建立了一套页岩气开发风险指标评价体系;同时,引入变权理论对常权的权重进行动态调节,提高评价结果准确性;最后,通过构造隶属度矩阵,建立变权模糊评价模型,对页岩气开发风险进行评价。结果表明,页岩气开发风险总体属于较高风险。其中,钻井风险评分最高,社会风险评分最低,在实际开发过程中需要重点在钻井风险方面加以防护。基于变权理论的风险评价方法,可以为页岩气开发风险评价及安全防护提供参考。
To elucidate the risk factors associated with shale gas development,a comprehensive analysis of a substantial body of literature was conducted using bibliometric methods.By providing a literature-based reference table for the risk indicator system and integrating risk identification theories,a comprehensive evaluation framework for shale gas development risks was established.The constant weights for various risk indicators were computed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and expert scoring method.Subsequently,the Variable Weighting Theory was introduced to dynamically adjust the constant weights derived from the AHP based on real-world circumstances,ensuring the feasibility of the weights for each indicator and thereby enhancing the accuracy of the evaluation results.Finally,by constructing a membership matrix,a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model based on the Variable Weighting Theory was established for assessing the risks associated with shale gas development.This study evaluated the shale gas development project in the Weiyuan region s 202H1 well area as a case study.The assessment results reveal that the geological risk indicator scores G 1=60.5520,the development technology risk indicator scores G 2=66.1820,the drilling risk indicator scores G 3=71.0920,the transportation pipeline risk indicator scores G 4=64.0466,the safety production risk indicator scores G 5=66.9493,the environmental risk indicator scores G 6=51.3382,and social risk indicator scores G 7=44.3922.Ultimately,the comprehensive risk score for shale gas development in the Weiyuan region s 202H1 well area is G=64.6360.Among these evaluation results,the drilling risk score is the highest,and the social risk score is the lowest,indicating an overall high level of risk in shale gas development.Therefore,particular attention should be given to drilling safety and protective measures should be implemented during the actual development process;other risks should not be overlooked.Additionally,a comparison of the evaluation results with the development situation in the 202H1 well area validates the accuracy of the assessment results.
作者
董利飞
张旗
钟品志
董文卓
王苗
韦海宇
余波
DONG Lifei;ZHANG Qi;ZHONG Pinzhi;DONG Wenzhuo;WANG Miao;WEI Haiyu;YU Bo(Faculty of Civil Engineering,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404120,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期2085-2094,共10页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
重庆市基础研究与前沿探索(面上项目)(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1135)
重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(重点项目)(KJZD-K202201204)
四川石油天然气发展研究中心2021年度课题(川油气科SKB21-08)。
关键词
安全工程
页岩气开发
风险评价体系
变权理论
模糊评价
safety engineering
shale gas development
risk assessment system
variable weight theory
fuzzy evaluation
