摘要
2002至2014年,中国蜂蜡的出口几乎处于“量价齐升”阶段,但从2015年起,出口数量、金额、单价都在波动中下降。为探究其增长和波动下降的原因,运用修正的CMS模型对2002~2021年中国蜂蜡出口贸易进行实证分析。结果表明:市场规模效应是中国蜂蜡出口增长的主要原因,市场分布效应和出口竞争力效应由正向效应快速转为非常明显的负向效应是中国蜂蜡出口波动下降的主要原因。2014年起,法国进口蜂蜡的数量持续强势增长,但中国对法国出口蜂蜡的数量却未见起色,这必须引起我们警惕。
From 2002 to 2014,China’s export of beeswax was almost in the phase of“rising volume and price”,but from 2015 onwards,the export volume,value and unit-price all declined in fl uctuation.In order to explore the reasons for the growth and fl uctuating decline,the modifi ed CMS model is used to empirically analyze China’s beeswax export trade from 2002 to 2021.The results show that:the market scale effect is the main reason for the growth of China’s beeswax exports;the market distribution effect and the export competitiveness effect are rapidly changing from a positive effect to a very obvious negative effect is the main reason for the fl uctuating decline of China’s beeswax exports.The continuous strong growth of France’s imports of beeswax from 2014 onwards,but the failure of China’s exports of beeswax to France to take off,that must cause us to be vigilant.
作者
王正国
沈少君
寸满翠
李勇
苏萍
罗应国
徐国钧
Wang Zhengguo;Shen Shaojun;Cun Mancui;Li Yong;Su Ping;Luo Yingguo;Xu Guojun(College of Animal Sciences(College of Bee Science),Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;Ningxia Guyuan Animal Husbandry and Aquatic Technology Extension and Service Center,Guyuan 756000,China)
出处
《中国蜂业》
2024年第3期57-60,共4页
Apiculture of China
基金
宁夏重点研发计划(2022BBF02037)
国家蜂产业技术体系建设专项经费(CARS-44-KXJ18)。
关键词
中国
蜂蜡
出口数量
CMS模型
增长和波动原因
China
beeswax
export volume
CMS model
reasons for the growth and fl uctuation
