摘要
以中国和东盟10国为研究对象,应用社会网络分析法构建中国-东盟贸易流网络,分析整体网络生长特征,揭示贸易节点关联与集散规律,进行核心-边缘角色、对等角色、中介角色识别。结果表明:(1)核心圈层新加坡、泰国、中国互动明显,中国逐渐占优;半边缘圈层国家周转频繁;柬埔寨、缅甸、老挝、文莱始终处于边缘圈层。(2)同一贸易流网络的行动者对等国家资源相互冗余,形成较强的竞争经济关系。文莱、柬埔寨、缅甸、老挝未曾担任中间人,中国、新加坡和泰国扮演中间人次数远超他国,更具资源把控话语权。印尼、马来西亚、越南、菲律宾充当中间人次数较少,运转资源能力欠缺。(3)中国、新加坡、泰国、越南可利用冗余资源探查贸易流网络中现存贸易缺口,以获更多机会发掘贸易新市场,保留多元选择及时规避风险。印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、柬埔寨、文莱和老挝缺少冗余资源用以分散风险,缺乏贸易中介能力,参与贸易流网络运行能力匮乏。为缩小中国-东盟贸易流网络局部发育差距,分散中国、泰国权力中心;重视贸易流子网络的建设,缅甸、老挝对接中国西南省域,拉近边缘国家与关键中介国的距离;以中国、新加坡为据点,调整国别贸易布局,运用中介角色连接核心与边缘国家。
Taking China and the 10 ASEAN countries as the research objects,the social network analysis method was used to construct the China-ASEAN trade flow network,we analyzed the growth characteristics of the overall network,revealed the relationship and distribution rules of trade nodes,identified core-periphery roles,peer roles,and intermediary roles.The results show that:①Singapore,Thailand,and China in the core circle have frequent interactions,and China gradually gain dominating status;countries in the semi-peripheral circle have frequent turnover and are not stable;Cambodia,Myanmar,Laos,and Brunei are always in the peripheral circle.②The actors in the same trade flow network are redundant with each other in national resources,forming a strong competitive economic relationship.Brunei,Cambodia,Myanmar,and Laos have never acted as intermediaries.China,Singapore,and Thailand have acted as intermediaries far more often than other countries,and have more resources to control.Indonesia,Malaysia,Vietnam,and the Philippines act as intermediaries less often and lack the ability to utilize resources.③China,Singapore,Thailand,and Vietnam can use redundant resources to explore existing trade gaps in the trade flow network,so as to gain more opportunities to explore new trade markets,and retain multiple options to avoid risks in a timely manner.Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Cambodia,Brunei and Laos lack redundant resources to diversify risks,lack trade intermediary capacity,and lack the ability to participate in the operation of trade flow networks.In order to narrow the partial development gap of China-ASEAN trade flow network and decentralize the power centers of China and Thailand;attach importance to the construction of trade flow sub-networks,connect Myanmar and Laos to the southwestern provinces of China,and shorten the distance between peripheral countries and key intermediary countries;With China and Singapore as strongholds,adjust the national trade layout and use the intermediary role to connect core and peripheral countries.
作者
程成
胡亚琪
王云龙
CHENG Cheng;HU Yaqi;WANG Yunlong(School of Economics,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;School of Liberal Arts,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)
出处
《世界地理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第5期1-17,共17页
World Regional Studies
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(15AJY015)
广西哲学社会科学规划研究课题(21FYJ040)
教育部创新团队计划“中国—东盟区域发展”。
关键词
中国-东盟
贸易流
网络生长
角色识别
社会网络分析
China-ASEAN
trade flows
network growth
role recognition
social network analysis
