摘要
提升居民消费水平和消费质量是坚持“以人民为中心”的重要体现,也是经济发展提质增效的有效支撑。房地产市场与居民消费息息相关,房地产市场的调控政策会对居民消费产生重要影响。我们通过构建居民消费决策和租买选择模型,分析了房地产限贷政策对居民消费的影响机制,并使用2013年和2018年中国家庭收入调查数据进行了实证检验。结果表明:首套房首付比例要求的降低有助于提升有购房(换房)需求家庭的消费水平和消费质量,尤其会促进交通、通信、教育、文化、娱乐等服务型消费;而二套房首付比例要求的提升有助于促进居民消费。首套房限贷政策松绑对消费的促进作用在购房意愿较强(人均租房面积较小)、财富水平较低或者没有当地户籍的家庭中更为明显。
Enhancing domestic consumption levels and quality is a fundamental requirement of adhering to the people-centered approach,and it also promotes improvements in economic quality and efficiency.The housing market is closely linked to household consumption.In this paper,we develop a simple model to analyze the effect of the down-payment ratio as a housing loan policy on household consumption.We employ a nationwide dataset,the Chinese Household Income Projects(CHIPs)2013 and 2018,to empirically test the main implications of the model.We find that restricting the down-payment ratio for the first-owned apartment does not diminish housing demand in the short term.Moreover,this policy lowers both the level and quality of consumption for households with a strong demand for owning an apartment,particularly in services such as communication,education,culture,and entertainment.However,the down-payment ratio for the second or subsequent apartments may stimulate household consumption.The negative impact of the down-payment ratio for the first apartment on consumption is stronger among those with stronger ownership desires(indicated by smaller rental apartment sizes),lower household wealth,and migrants without local Hukou(household registration).
作者
廖睿力
陈济冬
曹玉瑾
龚六堂
Liao Ruili;Chen Jidong;Cao Yujin;Gong Liutang(School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University;Academy of Macroeconomic Research,NDRC;Beijing Technology and Business University;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University)
出处
《宏观质量研究》
CSSCI
2024年第2期29-46,共18页
Journal of Macro-quality Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074133)
清华大学文科建设双高计划项目(2021TSG08101)
清华大学自主科研计划项目(2023THZWJC15)的资助。
关键词
扩大消费
消费质量
首付比例政策
以人民为中心
宏观政策取向一致性
consumption promotion
consumption quality
down-payment ratio
people-centered
policy-orientation consistence
