摘要
运用水足迹理论方法,结合脱钩理论和LMDI方法构建Tapio-LMDI模型,分析研究安徽省2011—2020年水资源利用与经济发展的脱钩效应。结果表明,安徽省水足迹呈现出逐渐降低的趋势,虽然人均水足迹和水资源自给率相对较高,水资源紧缺的压力有所缓解,但是水资源总量仍未能满足生产和生活的需求,仍处于紧缺状态。安徽省水资源最大流向行业为农业,生态用水占比最小,工业和生活用水表现出缓慢增加的趋势。安徽省水资源利用与经济发展整体处于弱脱钩状态,技术效应、产业结构效应、规模经济效应和常住人口效应4个脱钩因子中,技术效应、产业结构效应脱钩因子为脱钩的主要促进因子,而规模经济效应、常住人口效应脱钩因子对脱钩均具有负向驱动作用,但常住人口效应脱钩因子对脱钩的影响相对较小。因此,需要大力发展节水技术,优化升级产业结构,增强居民节水意识,从而促进安徽省水资源与经济的可持续发展。
The Tapio-LMDI model was constructed by combining the water footprint theory with the decoupling theory and LMDI method to analyze the decoupling effect between water resources utilization and economic development in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020.The result showed that although the per capita water footprint and self-sufficiency rate of water resources were relatively high,and the pressure of water shortage had been alleviated,the total water resources still failed to meet the needs of production and life,and were still in a state of shortage.In Anhui Province,the largest flow industry of water resources was agriculture,the proportion of ecological water use was the smallest,and industrial and domestic water use showed a slow increase trend.On the whole,water resources utilization and economic development showed a weak decoupling state,technology effect decoupling factor and industrial structure effect decoupling factor were the main influencing factors to promote the decoupling,the decoupling factors of scale economy effect and resident population effect had negative driving effects,and the effect of resident population decoupling factor on decoupling was relatively small.Therefore,it is necessary to vigorously develop water-saving technology,optimize and upgrade industrial structure,and enhance residents' awareness of water-saving,so as to promote the sustainable development of water resources and economy in Anhui Province.
作者
李宝春
LI Bao-chun(Anhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Hefei,Anhui 230088)
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2024年第12期197-200,212,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
水资源利用
水足迹
脱钩效应
安徽省
Water resources utilization
Water footprint
Decoupling effect
Anhui Province
