摘要
在人类活动影响与全球气候变化等因素持续影响下,黄河三角洲海岸始终处于动态调整状态。探究三角洲海岸线调整规律以及未来发展趋势,对三角洲地区经济发展和生态环境保护具有重要工程意义。本文基于MIKE21数学模型,建立2015年和2023年两个年份岸线条件下的泥沙冲淤模型,对比验证了刁口附近海域2015—2023年冲淤变化,验证了黄河泥沙模型设置的准确性;并在此基础上,设置了3组径流和泥沙工况,预测了现行河口附近海域2023—2030年的冲淤变化。结果显示:在2015—2023年间黄河2016年最小径流量下的输沙量工况下,现行河口处有少量冲刷,孤东近岸海域基本冲淤平衡,废黄河口处少量冲刷;在2015—2023多年平均径流量和输沙量工况下,孤东近岸海域东岸向有3 m左右淤积,现行河口和废弃河口处持续冲刷,最严重处达3 m左右;在黄河多年平均径流和输沙量的85%工况下,现行河口和废弃河口处持续冲刷,最严重处达3 m左右,孤东近岸海域东岸淤积可以达到1.5 m。研究结果可以更好地理解黄河三角洲海岸线的变化,为未来黄河口海岸带开发治理和可持续发展提供科学指导。
Due to natural environmental changes and human interventions,the coastline of the Yellow River Delta has been in constant change,and it is of great significance to explore the changes in the coastline of the delta region for economic development and ecological protection.Based on the MIKE21 mathematical model,this paper establishes a sediment scouring and silting model under shoreline conditions in different years,compares and verifies the changes of scouring and siltation in Diaokou from 2015 to 2023,and verifies the accuracy of the sediment model setting in the Yellow River.On this basis,three sets of runoff and sediment working conditions were set up to predict the erosion and siltation changes in the waters near the Yellow River estuary from 2023 to 2030.The results are as follows.Under the conditions of the minimum runoff and sediment transport of the Yellow River for many years,there is a small amount of erosion in the Yellow River estuary,the northeast of the Yellow River Delta is basically balanced in scouring and silting,and a small amount of erosion is in the old Yellow River estuary.Under the conditions of multi-year average runoff and sediment transport,there is about 3 m of siltation in the north-northeast direction of the Yellow River estuary,and the Yellow River estuary and the old Yellow River estuary continue to scour,and the most serious part is about 3 m.Under the condition of 85%of the runoff and sediment transport of the Yellow River for many years,the Yellow River estuary and the old Yellow River estuary continue to be scoured,and the most serious part is about 3 m,and the northward siltation of the Yellow River can reach 1.5 m.The results of this study can better understand the changes of the coastline of the Yellow River Delta,and provide scientific guidance for the future development,management and sustainable development of the coastal zone of the Yellow River estuary.
作者
石洪源
李龙盛
孙纪伟
赵升年
李岩
张丽丽
李庆杰
SHI Hongyuan;LI Longsheng;SUN Jiwei;ZHAO Shengnian;LI Yan;ZHANG Lili;LI Qingjie(Institute of Coastal Research,Ludong University,Yantai 264039,China;School of Hydraulic Engineering,Ludong University,Yantai 264039,China;Yantai Ocean Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Yantai 264006,China)
出处
《鲁东大学学报（自然科学版）》
2024年第3期201-209,共9页
Journal of Ludong University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(42330406)
山东省自然科学基金(ZR2023QE310)。
关键词
黄河三角洲
泥沙冲淤
MIKE21
数值模拟
the Yellow River Delta
sediment scouring
MIKE21
numerical simulation
