摘要
[目的]对作物生育期进行干旱风险分析,为有效进行干旱风险管理,实现作物高产稳产提供科学依据。[方法]本研究利用驻马店市1970-2019年7个代表站点的降水资料,结合夏玉米生育期,以降水距平百分率作为干旱指标,分析驻马店市夏玉米不同时段干旱时空特征及干旱风险。[结果]各站点各尺度夏玉米干旱以轻旱和中旱为主,占总干旱事件的86%~100%;而重旱和特旱的发生相对较少。从空间分布上看,南部地区的干旱发生强度和频率相对较小。从月尺度来看,驻马店市东北部的平舆站的夏玉米干旱风险最高,6月、7月、8月的干旱风险指数分别为31.20、19.44和27.36;南部的正阳站的夏玉米干旱风险最低,6月、7月、8月的干旱风险指数分别为19.04、15.60和15.60。从季节尺度来看,西北部的驻马店站的夏玉米干旱风险最高,干旱风险指数为18.72;南部的正阳站的夏玉米干旱风险最低,干旱风险指数为9.36。[结论]在实际生产中,应结合夏玉米的生长阶段及降水情况,重点关注北部及西部干旱风险较高区域的干旱防御工作,以减少干旱损失。
[Objective]It is to analyze the drought risk during the growth period of crops to provide a scientific basis for effective drought risk management and to achieve high and stable crop yields.[Method]Precipitation datas from seven representative stations in Zhumadian City from 1970 to 2019 were utilized in this study.The growth period of summer maize was combined with the precipitation anomaly percentage as a drought index to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and drought risk of summer maize during different periods in Zhumadian City.[Result]The drought of summer maize at various sites and scales was mainly characterized by light and moderate drought,accounting for 86%to 100%of the total drought events.However,the occurrence of severe and extreme drought was relatively rare.From a spatial distribution perspective,the intensity and frequency of drought occurrence in the southern region were relatively small.From monthly scales,the drought risk of summer maize at Pingyu station in the northeast of Zhumadian City was the highest,with drought risk index of 31.20,19.44,and 27.36 in June,July,and August,respectively.While the summer maize at Zhengyang station in the south had the lowest drought risk,with drought risk index of 19.04,15.60 and 15.60 in June,July,and August,respectively.From a seasonal perspective,the summer maize drought risk was the highest at Zhumadian station in the northwest region of Zhumadian City,with a drought risk index of 18.72;the summer maize drought risk was the lowest at the Zhengyang station in the south,with a drought risk index of 9.36.[Conclusion]In actual production,it is necessary to combine the growth stage of summer maize and precipitation situation,and focus on drought prevention work in areas with high drought risk in the north and west to reduce drought losses.
作者
任伟
邱美娟
檀艳静
陈博文
REN Wei;QIU Meijuan;TAN Yanjing;CHEN Bowen(College of Agronomy and Resources and Environment,Tianjin Agricultural University,Tianjin 300392,China;Zhoukou Meteorological Service,Zhoukou 466000,China)
出处
《湖南生态科学学报》
CAS
2024年第2期85-91,共7页
Journal of Hunan Ecological Science
基金
江西省气象科技项目(JX2022Z03)
日喀则市科技计划项目(RKZ2023ZR-008)。
关键词
降水距平百分率
夏玉米
干旱
风险分析
precipitation anomaly percentage
summer maize
drought
risk analysis
