摘要
为探究2004—2022年中国社会物流成本占GDP比重趋于下降的成因,在物流成本分类基础上对社会物流成本占GDP比重作了指标分解,并采用差额分析法测算物流需求系数、货物单位价值、平均运输距离、物流费率的变动对社会物流成本占GDP比重变化的影响。研究发现,2022年中国社会物流成本占GDP比重相比2004年有所降低,主要源于运输成本占GDP比重的下降和货物单位价值的提高,而物流需求系数、平均运输距离、物流费率的变动均使社会物流成本占GDP比重上升;在运输费率、保管费率、管理费率中,只有运输费率的变动起到了降低社会物流成本占GDP比重的作用;物流需求系数以2013年为拐点先升后降,其影响社会物流成本占GDP比重变化的方向发生了阶段性转折。降低社会物流成本占GDP比重绝不能通过去工业化或过度追求经济服务化的方式实现,而必须在保持制造业比重基本稳定的前提下稳步推进。同时,还须妥善处理好物流服务质量与成本的关系,从两者最佳组合上谋求物流效益的提高,防止物流降成本以牺牲服务质量为代价。展望未来,中国社会物流成本占GDP比重仍有继续下降的空间与潜力,可从结构优化、制度改革、科技赋能、资源整合、供应链协同等方面入手,采取合理有效措施进一步降低社会物流成本占GDP比重。
In order to explore the reasons for the decline in the proportion of logistics costs to GDP in China from 2004 to 2022,indicator decomposition is conducted based on classification of logistics costs,and the difference analysis method is used to calculate the impact of changes in logistics demand coefficient,unit value of goods,average transportation distance and logistics rates on the change in proportion of logistics costs to GDP.It is found that:the proportion of social logistics costs to GDP in 2022 has decreased comparing to 2004 mainly due to decrease in the proportion of transportation costs to GDP and increase in the value of goods,while the changes in logistics demand coefficient,average transportation distance and logistics rates pushed up the proportion of logistics costs to GDP;among transportation rates,storage rates,and management rates,only changes in transportation rates played a role in reducing the proportion of social logistics costs to GDP;and the logistics demand coefficient increased at first and then decreased with 2013 as turning point,and its impact on the direction of change in the proportion of social logistics costs to GDP has undergone a phase transition.Reducing the proportion of social logistics costs to GDP must be steadily promoted on the premise of maintaining a stable proportion of manufacturing industry instead of through deindustrialization or the excessive pursuit of service-oriented economy.At the same time,it is also necessary to properly handle the relationship between quality and cost in the process of providing logistics services,improve logistics benefits from the best combination of quality and cost,as well as prevent logistics cost reduction at the expense of sacrificing service quality.Looking ahead,there is still room and potential for the decline in the proportion of logistics costs to GDP in China,and it is recommended to take reasonable and effective measures to further reduce the proportion of logistics costs to GDP through structural optimization,institutional reform,technological empowerment,resource integration,and supply chain collaboration.
作者
潘文轩
PAN Wen-xuan(Shanghai Research Institute of Development,Shanghai Party Institute of CPC(Shanghai School of Administration),Shanghai 200233,China)
出处
《中国流通经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第7期76-86,共11页
China Business and Market
基金
上海市人民政府决策咨询研究课题“聚力产业创新赛道建链补链强链提升核心竞争力研究”(2023-Z-C01)。
关键词
社会物流成本占GDP比重
因素分析法
物流费率
降低社会物流成本
the proportion of social logistics costs to GDP
factor analysis method
logistics rates
social logistics costs reduction
