摘要
西藏地区是我国自然灾害频发的地区,长时间尺度自然灾害的重建,对认识青藏高原自然灾害演变过程具有重要意义.本文通过西藏地区历史洪涝灾害资料的挖掘和现代洪涝灾害数据的收集,重建了西藏地区1800—2010年洪涝灾害,并对洪涝灾害的时空分布特征和洪涝灾害影响因素进行了分析.结果表明:(1)近210年西藏地区共发生洪涝灾害371次,平均发生频率为1.77次/a,与邻近的四川盆地洪涝灾害发生频次相当,灾害主要集中在夏季;近210年来西藏地区洪涝灾害发生频次呈明显上升趋势,并存在5a、10a、15a、30a、50a等5个震荡周期,其中10a、30a、50a的震荡周期最为强烈;(2)西藏地区洪涝灾害主要分布在“一江两河”及藏南诸河流域,以拉萨、山南、日喀则、林芝地区为灾害核心区.洪涝灾害发生集中时间段在空间上的迁移,整体以东南方向迁移为主,6月份灾害空间分布聚集程度最强,8月份的聚集程度较为分散;(3)综合分析西藏地区洪涝灾害主要成因,1800—2010年西藏地区洪涝灾害主要集中在藏东南地区,与河流密集、降水等原因具有强烈相关性,洪涝灾害属于气象灾害类型,所以在未来的洪涝灾害研究中将引入气候变化深入分析.
The reconstruction of natural disasters on a long time scale is of great significance to understanding the evolution process of disasters on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Through data mining and collection both in the past and at ghe present,this paper reconstructed the flood disaster in Xizang from 1800 to 2010,and analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and the influencing factors of flood disaster.The results show that:(1)371 floods occurred in Xizang in recent 210 years,with an average frequency of 1.77 floods/a,which is similar to that of the neighboring Sichuan Basin,and mainly concentrated in summer.The frequency has shown an obvious upward trend,and there are five shock cycles,5a,10a,15a,30a and 50a,among which the shock cycles of 10a,30a and 50a are the strongest.(2)The flood disasters in Xizang are mainly distributed in the"one river and two rivers"and the river basins in southern Tibet,with Lhasa,Shannan,Shigatse and Nyingchi as the core areas.The spatial migration of flood disasters in the concentrated time period is mainly in the southeast direction.The spatial distribution is the strongest in June,and the concentration is scattered in August.(3)Comprehensively analgsis of the main causes of flood disasters in Xizang.From 1800 to 2010,flood disasters in Xizang were mainly concentrated in southeast Xizang,which were strongly related to the causes of river density and precipitation,etc.Flood disasters are meteorological,so in-depth analysis of climate change will be introduced into future research.
作者
李存秀
何文鑫
刘峰贵
陈琼
周强
罗静
LI Cun-xiu;HE Wen-xin;LIU Feng-gui;CHEN Qiong;ZHOU Qiang;LUO Jing(Qinghai Province Engineering Consulting Center Limited Liability Company,Xining 810008,China;School of Geographic Science,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810016,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,People’s Government of Qinghai Province&Beijing Normal University,Xining 810016,China)
出处
《青海师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2024年第2期37-46,共10页
Journal of Qinghai Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0603)
中国科学院战略重点研究计划(XDA20040200)。
关键词
历史洪涝灾害
重力模型
标准差椭圆
周期变化
historical flood disasters
gravity model
ellipse of standard deviation
periodic variation
