摘要
基于乌鲁木齐市2000年、2010年、2020年3期的土地利用数据,利用PLUS模型,选取了包括社会经济和自然环境在内的15项驱动因子,模拟了乌鲁木齐市2030年在生产发展、生活水平、生态保护、综合优化4种情景下的“三生”空间变化情况.结果表明:在2000~2020年间草地处持续缩减的状态,缩减了614.06km^(2);耕地表现为先小幅度增加后大幅度减少,共计减少了226.39km^(2);其他用地类型的面积则呈现持续增加的趋势;草地和未利用地之间的转化程度最剧烈.从多情景模拟结果来看:在四种情景演变预测中生活空间面积均呈扩张趋势,扩张程度最大可达85.86km^(2);在生产发展和生活水平情景下生产空间面积分别扩张了3.13km^(2)、38.17km^(2),生态空间面积则分别缩减了30.11km^(2)、124.03km^(2);在生态保护和综合优化情景下,生产空间面积有所缩减,最大缩减程度为149.8km^(2);综合优化情景下的用地类型空间变化趋势与生态保护情景的模拟的结果较为相似,不同之处在于其变化趋势较为缓和.总体来看,综合优化情景下模拟的结果更符合城市发展和生态保护的要求.乌鲁木齐市必须抓住机遇,及时解决城市发展与生态保护间的矛盾,走可持续发展之路.
Based on the land use data of Urumqi in 2000,2010 and 2020,this paper uses PLUS model to select 15 driving factors including social economy and natural environment to simulate the space changes of"production-livelihood-ecology"in Urumqi in 2030 under four scenarios,development of production,living standard,ecological protection and comprehensive optimization.The results show that from 2000 to 2020,the grassland area continuously decreased,shrinking by 614.06km^(2).The cultivated land first slightly increased and then significantly decreased,totaling a decrease of 226.39km^(2).The area of other land types showed a trend of continuous increase.the change degree of grassland and unused land is the most dramatic.From the results of multi-scenario simulation,in the four scenarios,the living space area shows an expanding trend,and the maximum expansion degree reaches 85.86km^(2),under the scenarios of development of production and living standard,the area of production space expands by 3.13km^(2) and 38.17km^(2) respectively,while the area of ecological space shrinks by 30.11km^(2) and 124.03km^(2) respectively,under the scenario of ecological protection and comprehensive optimization,the area of production space shrinking and the maximum shrink degree reaches 149.8km^(2),the spatial change trend of land use type under the comprehensive optimization scenario is similar to the simulation result of ecological protection scenario,but the difference is that the change trend of the former is relatively moderate.Altogether,the simulation results under the comprehensive optimization scenario are more in line with the requirements of urban development and ecological protection.Urumqi City must seize the opportunity,solve the contradiction between urban development and ecological protection in time,so that it can embark on a sustainable development path.
作者
周满意
王承武
ZHOU Man-yi;WANG Cheng-wu(School of Public Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第7期4021-4030,共10页
China Environmental Science
基金
新疆自然科学基金资助项目(2022D01A84)
新疆社科基金项目(21BJL101)。
