摘要
跨国公司外迁事关中国产业链安全和宏观经济稳定,然而对当前的外迁现实、宏观影响和政策应对效果进行科学量化的研究相对缺乏。本文以测度制造业跨国公司外迁为前提,识别外迁冲击路径,构建区分内外资企业的中国CGE模型模拟外迁的经济影响,并评估三类外迁应对政策的经济有效性。研究发现,2021年制造业跨国公司外迁行业平均外迁程度约为1.57%,其中高技术制造业外迁程度最大。在宏观影响上,跨国公司外迁对GDP(-1.17%)和就业(-0.78%)的影响较为可观,外迁下内需下降2.40%,净出口下降0.47%。在行业影响上,行业产出平均下降0.84%,受到技术溢出渠道切断效应负面冲击影响较大的内资企业及外迁程度较高的资本密集型、出口导向型和投资品行业外资企业产出受损严重,外迁程度较大行业的内资企业及受到外迁直接影响较小的外资企业产出小幅扩张。应对政策可以有效缓解外迁对国内经济、就业和内需的负面影响,提升高技术制造业外资企业产出,但也会导致通货膨胀、低端制造业及内资企业产出损失恶化等问题。不同稳外资政策的经济效果存在差异且有明显的行业及企业异质性,因此政策目标优先级不同,有效的应对政策选择需有所权衡。本文研究对提升政策制定的科学性和实现宏观经济稳定发展具有重要的现实意义。
Currently,the world has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation,with increased economic uncertainty caused by great power competition,geopolitical conflicts,and trade frictions,exacerbating the risk of multinational corporations withdrawing from China.Multinational corporation out-migration is related to China’s industrial chain security and macroeconomic stability.However,only a few studies have quantified the economic impact of multinational corporation outmigration and researched the effectiveness of related policies.This study measures the degree of multinational corporation out-migration,identifies the path of out-migration impact on the economy,quantifies the economic impact of out-migration based on the Chinese computable general equilibrium(CGE)model that distinguishes between domestic-and foreign-funded enterprises,and evaluates the effectiveness of three types of countermeasures.The study reveals that the average degree of outmigration of the manufacturing industry in 2021 was approximately 1.57%,with high-tech manufacturing having the highest degree of out-migration.From the perspective of macro impact,the out-migration has a significant impact on gross domestic product(GDP)(-1.17%)and employment(-0.78%),with a decrease of 2.40%in domestic demand and a decrease of 0.47%in net exports.In terms of industry impact,the average output of the industry decreased by 0.84%.The output of domesticfunded enterprises has been greatly affected by the negative impact of cutting off technology spillover channels,and foreign-funded enterprises in capital-intensive,export-oriented,and investment goods industries with a high degree of out-migration have been severely damaged.Further,the output of domestic-funded enterprises with a high degree of out-migration industries and foreign-funded enterprises,which have been less directly affected by out-migration,has slightly increased.The outmigration response policy can effectively alleviate the negative impact on the domestic economy and employment and improve the output of foreign-funded enterprises in the high-tech manufacturing industry.However,it also brings problems such as inflation and output losses of low-end manufacturing and domestic-funded enterprises.The economic effects of different policies to stabilize foreign investment vary,and there is significant industry and enterprise heterogeneity.Therefore,policies should be formulated based on the priority of policy objectives to achieve maximum effectiveness.This study has important practical significance for achieving stable macroeconomic development and enhancing the scientific nature of policy formulation.The contributions of this study are as follows.First,it measures domestic and foreign capital stock from 2006 to 2021 and identifies multinational corporation out-migration by changes in industry foreign capital stock.The improvement of indicator measurement methods has enhanced the scientificity and accuracy of this study.Second,this study clarifies the main impact paths of multinational corporation outmigration on the macro economy from a theoretical perspective and constructs a Chinese CGE model that distinguishes domestic-and foreign-funded enterprises.Based on this,it quantifies the economic impact of multinational corporation out-migration in 2021 and reveals the transmission mechanism at the macro level and domestic-and foreign-funded industry level by decomposing the effects of each path.Third,we summarize three types of stable foreign investment policy scenarios by reviewing existing policies,including improving investment preferential treatment policy,optimizing tax environment policy,and reducing corporate financing costs policy,and quantify the economic effects of various policies under the economic environment of multinational corporation out-migration.This study also has some policy implications.First,we must give full play to the role of domesticfunded enterprises in substituting foreign-funded enterprises to reduce the macroeconomic losses caused by multinational corporation out-migration.Second,the government should effectively and accurately implement a combination of policies to stabilize foreign investment and prevent and resolve negative risks caused by policy overlap.Third,we need to closely monitor the phenomenon of high-tech manufacturing multinational corporations out-migration.While strengthening investment incentives and optimizing tax policies for foreign-funded enterprises,we need to pay attention to the potential negative impact on domestic-funded enterprises.Fourth,the government should dynamically monitor the out-migration of labor-intensive low-end industries to prevent negative economic and employment impacts caused by rapid out-migration.
作者
张硕
周梅芳
朱能高
ZHANG Shuo;ZHOU Meifang;ZHU Nenggao(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University;School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第7期49-70,共22页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金杰出青年科学基金项目(72125010)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974186)
国家自然科学基金专项项目(72243011)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72104014)
北京市教委社科计划一般项目(SM202110011012)
北京大学中央高校基本科研业务费的资助。
关键词
跨国公司外迁
CGE模型
稳外资
宏观经济影响
政策评估
Multinational Corporation Out-migration
CGE Model
Stabilize Foreign Investment
Macroeconomic Impact
Policy Evaluation
