摘要
河冰是冰冻圈的重要组成部分。在气候变暖背景下,对黑龙江省主要河流的封冻日期进行研究,可为该地区防凌减灾提供科学依据。本文基于1962—2020年黑龙江省水文观测站封冻日期观测资料,利用Mann-Kendall检验、相关分析方法,探讨了黑龙江省主要河流封冻日期在气象要素的影响下随时间变化的特征,并采用信息扩散理论、线性回归分析方法对封冻日期进行了模拟预测。结果表明,1962—2020年松花江哈尔滨站、嫩江江桥站、黑龙江黑河站和乌苏里江饶河站平均封冻日期在11月12—22日之间,分别在1970年、2005年、2000年、2012年发生突变。1962—2020年黑龙江省四大江的封冻日期均呈推迟趋势,其中江桥站、黑河站封冻日期表现为显著推迟趋势(P<0.05),59年来分别推迟了15 d、8 d,变化速率分别为2.46 d·(10a)^(-1)、1.35 d·(10a)^(-1)。处于纬度相对较高地区的江桥站、黑河站封冻日期主要受11月上旬平均气温、地表气温、最低气温影响,而纬度相对较低的哈尔滨站、饶河站主要受11月中旬平均气温、地表气温、最低气温影响。当负积温为-180℃时,出现封冻的概率达到80%~90%;当负积温达到-240℃时,基本全部冻结。本文基于平均气温、地表气温、最低气温等关键因子所构建的多元线性回归模型预报精度均在80%以上。
As an important part of the cryosphere,under the background of global warming,this paper studies the freeze-up dates of major rivers in Heilongjiang Province,so as to provide a scientific basis for disaster pre-vention and mitigation.Based on the observation data of the freeze-up dates of the hydrological observation sta-tions in Heilongjiang Province from 1962 to 2020,this paper used the Mann-Kendall mutation test and linear trend analysis method to explore the characteristics of the river freeze-up dates of Heihe Station of Heilongjiang River,Harbin Station of Songhua River,Jiangqiao Station of Nenjiang River and Raohe Station of Wusuli River with the influence of meteorological factors.The freeze-up date,average temperature,surface temperature,minimum temperature,average wind speed and average sunshine hours were analyzed,and the freeze-up dates of Heihe Station,Harbin Station,Jiangqiao Station and Raohe Station were simulated and predicted by informa-tion diffusion theory and multiple linear regression analysis method.The results showed that:(1)From 1962 to 2020,the average freeze-up date of Harbin Station,Jiangqiao Station,Heihe Station and Raohe Station was be-tween November 12 and November 22.The results of Mann-Kendall mutation test showed that from 1962 to 2020,Harbin Station,Jiangqiao Station,Heihe Station and Raohe Station all had mutation dates,and the muta-tion years were 1970,2005,2000 and 2012,respectively.Over the past 59 years,the freeze-up dates of Jiangqiao Station and Heihe Station have been significantly postponed(P<0.05),with a change rate of 2.46 d·(10a)^(-1),1.35 d·(10a)^(-1),which was postponed by 15 d and 8 d,respectively.(2)The results of correlation analysis show that the average temperature,surface air temperature and minimum temperature are the key factors affect-ing the freeze-up date of Heihe Station,Harbin Station,Jiangqiao Station and Raohe Station.Specifically,the freeze-up dates of Jiangqiao Station and Heihe Station in relatively high latitude areas are mainly affected by the average temperature,surface temperature and minimum temperature in early November,while the Harbin Sta-tion and Raohe Station are mainly affected by the average temperature,surface temperature and minimum tem-perature in mid-November.(3)According to the information diffusion theory,when the negative accumulated temperature is-180°C,the probability of river freeze-up at Heihe Station,Harbin Station,Jiangqiao Station and Raohe Station reaches 80%~90%,and when the negative accumulated temperature reaches-240°C,the rivers of Heihe Station,Harbin Station,Jiangqiao Station and Raohe Station are basically frozen.(4)Based on the key factors such as mean temperature,surface air temperature and minimum temperature,this paper uses multi-ple linear stepwise regression analysis to simulate and predict the freeze-up dates of Harbin Station,Jiangqiao Station,Heihe Station and Raohe Station.The forecast accuracy of the constructed multiple linear regression model for river freeze-up forecast is more than 80%.It has a good effect on predicting the freeze-up date of Har-bin Station,Jiangqiao Station,Heihe Station and Raohe Station,which provides a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation in this area.
作者
陈霞
肖兴涛
李永生
王芳
张丽娟
刘栋
黄玉桃
赵余峰
CHEN Xia;XIAO Xingtao;LI Yongsheng;WANG Fang;ZHANG Lijuan;LIU Dong;HUANG Yutao;ZHAO Yufeng(Key Laboratory of Cold Area Monitoring and Information Service,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China;Heilongjiang Climate Center,Harbin 150030,China;Heilongjiang Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Center,Harbin 150001,China;Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau,Harbin 150008,China)
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
2024年第3期1006-1018,共13页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42271136)
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(ZD2020D002)资助。
关键词
封冻日期
河冰
冰情预报
气候变化
黑龙江省
freeze-up date
river ice
ice forecasting
climatic change
Heilongjiang Province
