摘要
三江源国家公园是我国生态系统最为敏感及脆弱的地区之一,对其生态系统服务价值(ESV)的评估和模拟可以为生态保护与修复提供重要的科学依据。采用经济修正的当量因子法,基于土地利用数据构建三江源国家公园ESV评估模型,探究2005—2020年研究区ESV的时空格局演变,同时运用PLUS模型预测三江源国家公园2035年自然演变、水域保护、林草植被保护和生态保护4种情景下的ESV特征。结果表明:2005—2020年三江源国家公园的ESV呈微弱递增趋势,由2005年3.77×10^(11)元增加到2020年3.93×10^(11)元;影响三江源国家公园ESV的主要地类为水体、草地、雪/冰和荒地,其中水体面积变化对ESV变化的影响最为显著,其平均贡献率高达67.8%;PLUS模拟2035年4种情景下的ESV均高于2020年,其中生态保护情景下的ESV最高,为4.21×10^(11)元,相比2020年的ESV增幅达到了7.2%。总体而言,在三江源国家公园的资源保护规划中,应注重对林草植被和水域的全面性生态保护,从而促进ESV的提高。
Sanjiangyuan National Park is one of the most sensitive and fragile ecosystems in China.Assessing and simulating ecosystem service value(ESV)can fill the knowledge gap for ecological protection and restoration.We constructed an ESV assessment model based on economically modified equivalent factor method and land use data to explore the spatial-temporal variations of ESV in Sanjiangyuan National Park from 2005 to 2020.The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation(PLUS)model was used to predict the characteristics of ESV under four scenarios(i.e.,natural evolution,water protection,forest and grassland vegetation protection,and ecological protection)in 2035.The ESV of Sanjiangyuan National Park showed an increasing trend from 3.77×10^(11)yuan in 2005 to 3.93×10^(11)yuan in 2020.The ESV was affected by water,grassland,snow/ice and barren land.The change of water area had a significant impact on the change of ESV(with an average contribution rate of 67.8%).Under the four scenarios simulated by PLUS model,the ESV values in 2035 were higher than that of 2020.The ecological protection scenario had the highest ESV,reaching 4.21×10^(11)yuan,an increase of 7.2%compared to 2020.Our findings suggest that the comprehensive ecological protection of forests,grasslands,and water areas should be emphasized in the resource protection planning of Sanjiangyuan National Park to promote the improvement of ESV.
作者
许海英
杨超
李清泉
XU Haiying;YANG Chao;LI Qingquan(MNR Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area&Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,Guangdong,China;College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,Guangdong,China;School of Earth Sciences,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期1881-1890,共10页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42201319)资助。
关键词
生态系统服务价值
时空演变
情景模拟
三江源国家公园
ecosystem service value
spatial-temporal evolution
scenario simulation
Sanjiangyuan National Park
