摘要
贵渝管道沿线地质灾害十分发育,对管道安全造成严重威胁。该文以贵渝管道沿线地质灾害为研究对象,选择5种类别(诱发、水文、植被、地形、地质)13个因子对贵渝管道地质灾害进行驱动因子分析及危险性评价。首先,利用斯皮尔曼相关性统计方法剔除白噪声;然后通过地理探测器(Geodetector)模型量化各因子的重要性占比;应用支持向量机(SVM)模型完成因子递归分析,确定Bier分数陡降后的因子为主控因子,再基于SVM模型对管道地质灾害危险性作出评价。结果表明:区段主控因子为坡度、坡向、曲率、岩性、年均降雨量、河网密度、断裂带密度8个因子。其中,以降雨和岩性因子对地质灾害发育的贡献最大,二者交互作用明显。
The geohazards along the Guiyu pipeline are highly developed and seriously threaten the pipeline's safe operation.By taking geohazards along the Guiyu pipeline as the research object,a total of 13 driving factors are identified and categorized into five main categories,including predisposing,hydrological,vegetation,topographic and geologi⁃cal conditions.The driving factors are analyzed for pipeline geohazard's main controlling factors and risk assessment.First⁃ly,the noise factor is removed using the statistical method of Spearman correlation.The Geodetector model is then used to quantify the importance of each factor in the geohazards.The Support Vector Machine(SVM)model is applied for re⁃cursive analysis to identify the factor after a steep drop in the Bier score as the main control factor.Finally,by using SVM models,the risk of pipeline geohazards is assessed.The results show that the main controlling factors of pipeline geohaz⁃ards in the study area include eight factors as slope gradient,aspect,curvature,lithology,average annual rainfall,stream density and fracture zone density.The average annual rainfall and lithology factors are found to be the most signifi⁃cant contributors to the development of geohazards,with a clear interaction observed between them.
作者
龚俊豪
李秀珍
余文秀
孔纪名
谢成
邵其其
熊华勇
GONG Junhao;LI Xiuzhen;YU Wenxiu;KONG Jiming;XIE Cheng;SHAO Qiqi;XIONG Huayong(University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Institute of Mountain Hazards and Envi-ronment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China;South China Branch,State Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipeline Network Group,Guangzhou 510623,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期187-194,共8页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家重点研发计划(专题)“多灾种演进过程时空耦合与成灾机制”(2022YFC3004401-3)
国家石油天然气管网集团科研项目“基于大数据的华南管网地质灾害风险分级与预警关键技术研究”GWHT20210014429。
