摘要
基于2008—2022年省级面板数据,采用CRITIC权重、耦合协调度、莫兰指数、障碍度模型分析中国31省域农业水资源安全和粮食安全。结果表明,农业水资源安全水平较高、波伏较大。粮食安全总体水平不高,2008—2016年提升较大,2017—2022年提升小,两者都呈上升态势。空间格局不均衡,农业水资源安全呈现东部、中部>全国>西部、东北的空间特点,粮食安全呈现东北>中部>东部>全国>西部的总体形势。农业水资源安全和粮食安全总体上处于高水平耦合,各省域农业水资源安全和粮食安全协调水平在稳步上升,但耦合水平发展不均衡,呈现中部最高,东部、东北、全国接近,西部最低的基本局面。中国农业水资源安全与粮食安全的耦合协调度在空间上存在显著的正向空间相关性。多数省域都分布在高-高、低-低象限,大部分省域耦合协调度呈现正向空间相关特征。不同地区农业水资源安全和粮食安全受当地条件差异性影响而受限不一致,工业用水总量、人均水资源拥有量是农业水资源安全的主要共性障碍;道路密度、粮食作物播种面积、货运承载力是粮食安全的主要共性障碍。
Based on the provincial panel data from 2008 to 2022,the CRITIC weight,coupling coordination degree,Moran index and obstacle degree model were used to analyze the agricultural water resources security and food security of 31 provinces in China.The re-sults showed that the level of agricultural water resources security was high and the wave was large.The overall level of food security was not high,with a large increase in 2008—2016 and a small increase in 2017—2022,both showing an upward trend.The spatial pattern was not balanced.The agricultural water resources security presented the spatial characteristics of the eastern and central re-gions>the whole country>the western and northeast regions,and the food security presented the overall situation of northeast>cen-tral region>eastern region>the whole country>western region.Agricultural water resources security and food security were generally at a high level of coupling.The coordination level of agricultural water resources security and food security in each province was rising steadily,but the development of coupling level was not balanced,showing the highest in the central region,close to the eastern re-gion,northeastern and the whole country,and the lowest in the western region.There was a significant positive spatial correlation be-tween the coupling coordination degree of agricultural water resources security and food security in China.Most provinces were distrib-uted in the high-high and low-low quadrants,and the coupling coordination degree of most provinces showed positive spatial correla-tion characteristics.The agricultural water resources security and food security in different regions were limited by the differences in lo-cal conditions.The total industrial water consumption and per capita water resources were the main common obstacles to agricultural water resources security.Road density,sown area of grain crops and freight carrying capacity were the main common obstacles to food security.
作者
高鸿铭
樊帆
GAO Hong-ming;FAN Fan(School of Economics and Management,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023,Hubei,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2024年第7期176-184,共9页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
关键词
农业水资源安全
粮食安全
耦合协调
时空格局
障碍因子
agricultural water resources security
food security
coupling coordination
space-time pattern
obstacle factor
