摘要
后冷战时代,位处大国战略交汇区的小国地缘环境敏感而多变,其对外战略行为往往表现为对冲战略特征。本文基于跨学科交融互鉴的理念,构建大国战略交汇区小国地缘环境及其对冲战略响应分析框架,解析中美战略交汇区菲律宾地缘环境要素特征,分析冷战后菲律宾对中美对冲战略实践的演变及地缘驱动因素。研究发现:(1)国别地缘环境可作为解析一国战略行为的情景视角,体系压力和国家战略偏好是跨尺度影响对冲战略的地缘变量,两者共同作用于大国战略交汇区小国实施差异化战略。(2)菲律宾独特的地缘区位和自然地理环境及漫长的被殖民史是菲律宾实施对冲战略的地理基础。不同时期中美菲三角地缘关系的不对称性、及区域地缘结构的二重性和不稳定性,导致亚太区域权力关系和结构的不确定性是菲律宾实施对冲战略的地缘驱动因素。(3)后冷战时期,中美战略竞争加剧导致菲律宾的区域地缘环境体系压力增大,并压缩其对冲空间,菲律宾在中美之间采取对冲战略并趋于追随美国。同时,菲律宾的国内治理问题和领导人认知决定其不同时期战略实施的具体手段。本文旨在探究大国战略交汇区地缘环境对小国实施对冲战略的地缘驱动因素,以期为中国制定对周边小国的外交政策提供有益启示。
In the post-Cold War era,small states located at the strategic intersection of great powers are faced with heightened sensitivity and variability in their geo-setting,consequently,their foreign strategic behaviors are characterized as hedging.This article constructs an analytical framework underpinned by the interdisciplinary integration of geo-setting and hedging theories to reveal the rationale of strategy responses of small states in the strategic intersection.Taking the triple-relation between the Philippines,China and the US as an example,the research unpacks the characteristics of geo-setting elements of the Philippines as a strategic intersection,the evolution of its hedging strategies towards China and the US after the Cold War,as well as the geopolitical driving factors.The study concludes that:(1)The diverse strategies of small states in strategic intersections are influenced by national geo-setting,systemic pressure,and national strategic preference.The national geo-setting functions can be considered as a contextual perspective in analyzing strategic behaviors,while the other two can be regarded as geo-variables that play their cross-scale roles regionally and nationally.(2)The strategic response of the Philippines is deeply based on and driven by geographical,and relational and structural factors.The hedging strategy of the Philippine is geographically grounded by its unique geo-location and physical geographical environment,as well as its long history of colonization.Propelled by the uncertainty of power relations and structures in the Asia-Pacific region,the hedging strategy of the Philippine evolves with the dynamics of the asymmetric triangular geo-relations between the Philippines-US-China,and the duality and instability within this region.(3)In the post-Cold War period,the ever-intensifying strategic competition between China and the US has exerted regional geopolitical pressures on the Philippines,thereby shrinking its hedging space.The Philippines has forged hedging strategies between China and the US,and concomitantly align with the United States.Meanwhile,the implementation of strategies in different periods are influenced by domestic governance issues and the perceptions of leaders.This study aims to interrogate the driving factors behind small states'implementation of hedging strategies in strategic intersections of great powers,with the hope of providing illuminative insights for China's diplomatic policy towards neighboring small countries.
作者
富宁宁
牛福长
葛岳静
刘菊梅
彭飞
叶帅
FU Ningning;NIU Fuchang;GE Yuejing;LIU Jumei;PENG Fei;YE Shuai(Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education,Institute of Marine Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,Liaoning,China;School of Culture and Tourism,Jiangsu University of Technology,Changzhou 213001,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第7期1627-1643,共17页
Geographical Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD138)
国家自然科学基金项目(42271253)。
关键词
地缘环境
对冲战略
战略交汇区
小国
菲律宾
美国
中国
geo-setting
hedging strategy
strategic intersection area
small states
the Philippines
the United States
China
